Starcraft 2: Blizzard Website Updates

Quick post, but if you haven’t checked out the new Starcraft 2 website, you are missing out.   I’ve managed to successfully avoid getting roped into World of Warcraft, but I’m pretty sure this one has my number on it.  I’m not sure exactly how I’m going to find the couple hundred spare hours necessary for this one.  I think Blizzard may be the best video game company of all time.

Pixar:Computer Animation as Blizzard:Real Time Strategy Games

Discuss.

Fake Steve Jobs to Join Forbes.com on August 6th

The 14-month quest for the identity of Fake Steve Jobs is at an end, and the answer is somewhat of a surprise.

I won’t spoil it here, but you can read about it directly on the FSJ blog.   The announcement from Forbes.com is here.  The New York Times coverage that outed him is here.

I find the FSJ blog extremely humorous on most days.  It’s a little sad to have the illusion popped.

I feel like he deserves one of those “Real American Hero” spoof commercials for Bud Light…

So here’s to you, Mr. Fake Steve Jobs… 

New York Times Article on Silicon Valley Millionaires

I almost called this article: “The New York Times Gets the Valley… Wrong”, but I decided that there was both good & bad in the piece.

The article I’m referring to was the cover story of the New York Times, Sunday August 5th Edition:

New York Times: The Silicon Valley Rat Race

The piece is designed to be inflammatory, like a lot of media pieces. It’s meant to get people to smack their heads and go, “My goodness, this is definitely in Bubble 2.0. How could people be so misguided to not be satisfied with millions of dollars!”.

Well, the bait took. This blog fell for it.  Blogging Stocks fell for it hook, line and sinker also. Check out their piece today.

Why can’t the Silicon Valley rat racers just kick back and enjoy their lives? As the article points out, many have contemplated moving “to a small town like Elko, NV and being a ski bum or to the middle of the country and living like a prince in a spacious McMansion in the nicest neighborhood in town.” But the need to reach the top of the wealth pyramid drives them to stay in their small houses, commute long hours to and from work, and put in 70 hour work weeks.

I’m pretty sure that’s exactly the reaction the New York Times piece was looking for. Too bad that is not actually reflective of what drives & motivates most of the people in the article or in Silicon Valley as a whole.

Dave Winer wrote this piece today, basically explaining that everyone in the Valley is after the almighty dollar, and that’s why he escaped to Berkeley. (As an aside, it’s an interesting implication that Berkeley isn’t part of Silicon Valley). Sorry, Dave. I’ve been reading your commentary since the early 1990’s, when I wrote my first Lasso scripts. But I think you were so eager to jump on your point here, you missed the actual truth behind the piece.

I guess I would be reacting a bit differently here if I didn’t have some personal insight here, but I do. Not only was I born & raised here in Silicon Valley, but I happen to have met the main character of the story. I don’t know him well, mind you, but my wife did work with his wife, and we even enjoyed a wonderful going away party at their house a few years ago. These are good people, solid people, with incredibly solid values. Painting them as some sort of money-hungry Silicon Valley spoiled brats who aren’t satisfied with a few million dollars is so far off-base as to be offensive. Now mind you, I don’t think the article actually did that. But it’s clear that the article was tilted to elicit that reaction.

But, to be generous, let’s start with what this article got right:

Real estate in Silicon Valley is expensive. Incomes here might be 50% higher than the national average, but housing prices are approximately 250% higher. The average home is over $780,000 now, and that’s not for some McMansion. That’s a pretty plain-vanilla, modest home. That’s more than 10x the average household income. I know I’m not going to get any sympathy from the New York, LA or Boston crowds here, but living costs are high. What’s more, that’s nothing compared to the prices of houses in good school districts.

Some people are always chasing the next “wealth” level. There are, in fact, people who are never satisfied. They want millions when they have hundreds of thousands, and they wants tens of millions when they have millions. I’ve worked with people before who were worth over $50M, but were aspiring for $100M+ where private jet ownership is realistic. These people are usually not from the Bay Area, and are rarely engineers, but they are definitely around. Fortunately, they are a relatively small minority.

A few million is not “Lifestyles of the Rich & Famous” by any stretch here. See above, but how can it be, when a fairly standard 2000 square foot house in Los Altos is over $1.5 Million? If you’ve read my other pieces about managing money in retirement, a “nest egg” of $2M might sound like a lot, but it really can only be reliably counted on for $80K – $100K of ongoing annual income. It likely guarantees a solid, middle-class lifestyle on an ongoing basis, and is something to be thankful for, to be sure. But it’s not an opulent Hollywood lifestyle by any stretch.

Now, a few thoughts on what this article go wrong:

Age matters when talking about wealth. A couple in their 20s and a couple in their 50s are in very different stages of their lives. When you talk about wealth, you can’t just compare stories from different age groups. A 20-year old with a couple million in the bank is in a very different situation than a 50-year old. Of course, both are in very good situations, but the 50-year old is likely thinking about whether or not they’ll be able to retire in 10 years in their current home, with their current lifestyle. A 20-year old has their whole career ahead of them, and likely sees the money as either a safety net or as a license to make career choices based on passion rather than money. The New York Times article throws together people from different age brackets, and thus yields misleading results. For the record, though, a 50-year old with $200K in income who is planning to retire in 15 years actually needs to have a couple million saved at that point to have a shot at maintaining their lifestyle in retirement.

Most people in Silicon Valley aren’t gunning for the next wealth level. This might be hard to believe, especially if you live in New York and you are used to seeing money in the hands of wealthy families, investment bankers, private equity partners, and hedge fund managers. But the truth is, most of the financially successful in Silicon Valley with a few million are likely engineers who worked for a company that grew tremendously in value. Thanks to the fact that Silicon Valley emphasizes a culture where employees are typically shareholders in their companies, sometimes your company grows in value 10x or even 100x or more in value. A stock option grant of 2000 shares in 1997 in Apple is now worth over $1 Million.

Most of the people who work for Silicon Valley firms are technical, and most technical people have spent a lot of time working long hours to earn degrees in engineering and the sciences. Most of these people cannot imagine anything more motivating that working on the cutting edge of technology, and creating new products and services that would have been impossible as recently as five years ago. That is the primary excitement and driver of so much of the innovation in Silicon Valley.

That is the reason why, in many cases, earning significant money, like the families in this article, doesn’t lead people to leave and rest of their laurels. In fact, for many, the money enables them to feel a little more secure about their families and their career choices. And that, ironically, it makes it easier for them to sign up to work even harder on the next opportunity.

That’s not true in all cases, of course. There are plenty of people who take their good fortune and build new lives in areas with lower costs, a slower pace, and more time. It’s common enough, but clearly not the majority case. There are also people who will never get enough, and are always looking for the next financial rung to climb. I feel like I met more of them when I was in venture capital than I do now, but they are certainly a visible minority.

Ironically, that type of drive is what makes costs in the Bay Area so high. Similar to Manhattan, you end up implicitly competing with these people for housing, services, and even restaurant prices.

Just to bring this rather length missive to a close, let me just say the following:

I recommend that people read the original New York Times piece. Despite the negative aspersions, there is a lot to be learned from a personal finance perspective by thinking about “what if” scenarios. I’ve posted here in the past about the notoriously terrible outcomes that await most lottery winners, professional athletes, and Hollywood stars who come into sudden fortunes.

Silicon Valley is no exception. People can make a lot of money here suddenly, with no real significant financial education or preparation for how to manage it. $1 Million is a lot of money, but spread over a lifetime it really doesn’t change a person’s financial position as much as you might think. In many ways, the people in Silicon Valley who make significant small fortunes and yet don’t let it fundamentally change their day-to-day lives are likely in a much better state of mind than those who treat their new found wealth like lottery winners.

DirecTV Tivo Declares “I’m Not Dead”… Yet

Saw this article yesterday announcing new features for DirecTivo boxes still in service (like mine).  For some reason, it reminded me of this Monty Python sketch where the guy tells the dead collector that he’s “not dead yet”.

Engadget: DirecTivo Owners to Get Update in Early ’08

The article details new features that DirecTV customers using Tivo can expect in early 2008:

  • Online scheduling (finally)
  • Deleted items folder
  • Overlap protection

Yes, all these features have been available for years on other Tivo boxes.  Yes, DirecTV is still not providing access to home media options, Tivo To Go, Amazon Unbox, or any of the other cool services from Tivo.  Yes, DirecTV apparently has no interest in actually pleasing its customers.

I’ve written before about the mistake DirecTV made to abandon Tivo effectively for the inferior NDS-based solution.   They took a fairly proprietary advantage that led to incredibly low customer churn rates, and turned it into a powerful driver to force some of their most valuable customers to move to their cable competitors.

In any case, with the announcement of the new, $299 Tivo HD, I can’t imagine why anyone who moves to HD would stick with DirecTV… except maybe if you have to have the sports package.  I have friends who are still working off the old HD DirecTivo.  Maybe they can ride that out until DirecTV gets serious again about Tivo support.

Fun Site of the Day: StateTris (Tetris with the United States)

This one was too fun not to pass along.  I love web-based geography games.

This is a Flash game called “StateTris”… it’s Tetris with the 48 continental United States.

The controls took a little getting used to, but I managed to finish the medium level in under 8 minutes.  Not a great score, but not bad for a combination of spatial recognition of the states, and a bit of fancy fingerwork for the complicated shapes… 🙂

Try StateTris yourself!  Let me know what your score is.

Repeat After Me… I Will Not Read Harry Potter Spoilers…

Just one more day until Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows is out. The original post on the book is still this blog’s most viewed page, and is soaring in page views daily.

I’ve had my pre-order in with Amazon for over three months… and yet I am still considering going down to Borders at midnight on Friday. Yes, it’s a sickness.

The net is full of leaked pages, scanned images, quotes and comments.

Repeat after me:

“I will not read Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Spoilers…”

🙂

Update (7/21/2007): Still waiting for the mail man with my Amazon order… so … hard … to …. resist … Wikpedia summary

Update (7/21/2007):  Got the special edition in the mail just a half-hour after the last update.  About 150 pages into the book …

Movie Review: Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Book 5)

On Tuesday night, I did something I haven’t done since high school.  I stayed up to see a midnight premiere of a movie at Century 16 on Shoreline.  In fact, the last time I did this, it was Century 10 on Shoreline, because they hadn’t added on the last 6 theaters yet.

I wasn’t planning on it, but I was offered free tickets by my Mom, a Harry Potter fan, and I couldn’t let her stay up that late and wait out in the cold.   So, after arriving at the theater at 10:30pm, and getting into the theater at 11:15pm, watching trailers start at 12:15am, at 12:35am, we began watching Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix.

Overall rating: B+.  It was a good movie, and I’m fairly sure I will watch it several more times when it comes out on cable and DVD.

In fact, the only problem with the movie really is the problem with the last two Harry Potter movies… the books have become so large that there is no reasonable way to capture them in a 2-hour movie.  I feel like they keep getting trapped in the middle:  too long and with too little context for a viewer who hasn’t read the books, but too short and with too little detail for someone who has.

I really wish they would learn from the Lord of the Rings success, and make an extended 4-hour version of the movie, mini-series length, for DVD.  Tens of millions of Harry Potter fans would buy it, and it would be a better movie to stand the test of time 10 or 20 years from now.

In any case, it was worth seeing, and I’m glad I’ve re-read the fifth and sixth books in the series.  I’m all fresh and ready for the infamous Book 7, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, due to arrive in less than 10 days.

Scientific Illiteracy at Disney’s California Adventure Theme Park

My apologies for not posting more in the past week – we took the family down to LA (10 hours of minivan fun each way) to go to Disneyland for my father’s 60th birthday. This was the first trip to Disneyland for my 2 1/2 year old son, so needless to say, we were all quite excited.

My dad pointed out this silly mistake at Disney’s California Adventure theme park. In the bear country, they have these oil drums all over the place in a pseudo-frontier environment. Check this one out (courtesy of my Blackberry Pearl):

Really? Knowing that it was someone’s full time job to set up the props for this theme park, and that several million people have likely walked by this, it’s still messed up?

The irony is that I imagine some effort around not just labeling the drum water:

“Hey, let’s get fancy here. What’s that thing they call water sometimes? H2O?”

“Yeah, but they make the 2 little, like this”

“Oh, that looks cool. Awesome. Thanks.”

sigh. I really liked the book Innumeracy, by John Allen Paulos, which focuses on the incredible lack of numerical competence for most educated people. Seeing this drum made me feel like whatever the situation is around mathematical ignorance, my guess is that the ignorance around science is even worse.

Just so I can’t be accused of spreading ignorance, a water molecule is represented chemically by its components, 2 Hydrogen atoms, and 1 Oxygen atom. H2O. As always, Wikipedia is here to the rescue. You can find an entire page on it here.

This prop is a silly mistake, of course, and not an indictment of our society. But it bugged me so much that I decided to post it here. Maybe a few thousand page views of embarrassment will get Disney to fix it.

So, Digg this link… maybe we can shame them into fixing it.

Battlestar Galactica: Ronald Moore Talks about Earth

Very long and detailed interview with Ron Moore on Crave Online about Battlestar Galactica, including a lot of his thoughts about season 4.

Battlestar Galactica: Ronald Moore Talks About Earth

One of the questions I like has Moore reflecting on what he believes is the most interesting about science fiction:

CRAVE ONLINE: A lot of viewers see very specific metaphors in the show for what’s going on in the world today. Do you ever feel like fans get too literal in their own interpretations, and do you ever wish that people would just relax and enjoy the show on its own merits?

RONALD MOORE: Part of the point of science fiction, at least in its roots, was always to give the audience an allegory to present a metaphor for what was taking place in the culture. I think we’ve always enjoyed, and taken a certain satisfaction in, the fact that there are those who watch the show and assume that there is a liberal bias and those who watch the show and assume there’s a pro-military bias, and that’s how it’s supposed to work. You’re supposed to bring your own point of view to it, and then be able to extrapolate out whatever messages you want. The show tends to not be terribly definitive. We were pretty clear from the outset that this wasn’t going to be about protagonists espousing lessons and rules, and arriving at the end to save the day and tell everyone what was right and what was wrong. The line separating the protagonists and antagonists would often blur with the audience often asking themselves if they’re rooting for the right side. There’s always going to be a question mark of sorts at the end of most stories, and I think that applies to the political element as well. There really isn’t a definitive answer to anything that’s being espoused by any given story. It’s more just about the idea that there are two sides to every equation.

This is interesting to me, in particular, because this is why I’ve always been drawn to science fiction. So much of political and moral debate can unwittingly be shaped by assumptions about technology. It’s always fascinating to see how different assumptions about what is and isn’t possible can shape debate about very real human issues.

Supergirl to Join Smallville in Season 7

Is this worth blogging about? I don’t know.

Supergirl will indeed be a new character in Smallville when it returns for Season 7. More on this at SyFy Portal.

Clark’s cousin Kara “was sent to Earth in a ship that arrived at the same time as baby Kal-El’s,” executive producer Al Gough told TV Guide. “But there was a problem and she’s been in suspended animation for the last 16 years. We’ll find out in the season premiere that the big dam break in last season’s finale is the reason she’s finally awoken.”

I have a special place in my heart for truly awful movies… and the Supergirl movie from 1984 is one of the worst ever. Unbelievably bad.

The Bookmakers Have Spoken: Harry Potter Will Die in Book 7

Don’t shoot the messenger.

Caught this post today on Paul Kedrosky’s blog and on Marginal Revolution. It included this quote from a Bloomberg piece on a bookmaker has stopped taking bets on Harry Potter dying. Apparently, all the money was going towards him dying – no one would take the other side of the bet.

William Hill Plc, a London-based bookmaker, is so sure of Harry’s demise that it stopped accepting wagers and shifted betting to the possible killers. Lord Voldemort, who murdered Potter’s parents, is the most likely villain, at 2-1 odds, followed by Professor Snape, one of his teachers, at 5-2.

“Every penny was on Harry dying, and it became untenable,” said Rupert Adams, a William Hill spokesman. “People are obsessed about this book.”

“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows,” from Bloomsbury Publishing Plc, goes on sale July 21 with a retail price of 17.99 pounds ($35.50). It’s published in the U.S. by Scholastic Corp. for $34.99. Advance orders put the book at the top of online bookseller Amazon.com Inc.’s U.K. best-seller list eight hours after Rowling announced the title Dec. 21.

Rowling, 41, caused a stir among Potter fans when she said two characters will die in the new book. The six earlier novels about Harry’s adventures at Hogwart’s School of Witchcraft and Wizardry have sold more than 300 million copies, earning Rowling a 545 million-pound fortune and making her wealthier than Queen Elizabeth II, according to the U.K.’s Sunday Times Rich List. “

This is a pretty typical PR piece, but interesting nonetheless. I am a huge fan of betting & futures markets as excellent barometers and predictors based on the “wisdom of crowds”, to the limits of that wisdom, of course.

You have to wonder… assuming that JK Rowling has know the fate of Harry since Book 1, then it might be fair to assume that despite her best intentions, she has leaked very minor, subtle clues subconsciously into what she has and hasn’t written into the first six books.  It’s possible that, when exposed to millions of human minds, those subtle clues would lead to a consensus view on the matter that might be accurate.

Or, the perverse type of person who would bet on Harry Potter just happens to have a bias towards a gory end for the boy wizard.

You decide.  🙂

Battlestar Galactica: Season 4 is the End

Earth or bust.

There has been a lot of coverage of this, so I’ll just point to the best article on the topic that I’ve read on SyFy Portal. The 22 episodes that will begin in January 2008 will be the last of the series.

Kudos to the producers and writers for capping this series off with a game plan and a strong finish. With these serial dramas, I’m beginning to have more and more respect for the teams that have the sense to not draw them out endlessly. Check out this quote from Ronald Moore:

“The temple gave D’Ann (Lucy Lawless) the glimpse of the Final Five that triggers the beacon that points the way to Earth,” Moore said. “At that point, you’re promising the audience that you were moving toward revelation. By the end of the season, we had taken that moment to decide that we were going to reveal four of the Final Five, and one of the characters had been to Earth and seen it.

“That’s probably the moment when we started feeling it. If we don’t start moving in that direction, you get to a place where you just feel like you’re jerking off the audience or treading water instead of just moving forward and pushing limits. We didn’t want to be in that position.”

Another interesting tidbit was some additional detail on “Razor”, the BSG made-for-TV movie airing this fall.