A Little Break from Blogging…

You won’t see a lot of posts from me this week.  My wife Carolyn & I are expecting our second son, and induction is scheduled for tomorrow.  As a result, I’m expecting the next week to be a blur.

As with our first son, I will likely have a Baby blog up so that family & friends can follow the action remotely.

You can look for updates on the Baby Nash website.  There will be updates there when we are ready.

My First eBay Guide: US 50 State Quarter Program

Instead of writing a blog post on this topic, I decided to use the new eBay Reviews & Guides feature to write a new “eBay Guide” on the topic of the US State Quarter Program:

Collecting State Quarters: Which Will Gain in Value?

Read it and let me know what you think. If you like it, and you are an eBay member, please vote for the guide as useful.

The fundamental theory is that by looking at the total mintage of a state quarter, and comparing it to the population of the state, you can partially predict where supply & demand will be out of balance in the future. This is because demand is skewed by the population of a state, but the US Treasury mints quarters purely based on macroeconomic conditions at the time.

I continue to be a fairly avid coin collector, and I thought it would be nice to try and “give back” to the eBay coin community by putting together a guide. I’m interested to see what feedback I get from posting in that forum.

Need Ideas for a Good Present? Eight (8) Core Xeon Mac Pro

Every year, people seem to have trouble figuring out what gifts I might want for the holidays or for my birthday.  This year, it seems simple enough.

AppleInsider | Ripe in Cupertino: an Apple with 8 cores

I really can’t say what I might need an 8-core Xeon Mac Pro for anymore.  When I was a developer, I could always say, “Well, my average compile time is 30 minutes, so reducing it to 15 minutes would be a real time saver.”

Today, my world is mostly Apple Mail, Quicken & Safari/Firefox.  Not really that performance intensive.  I do spend a lot of time in iPhoto & Photoshop CS2, so I guess that qualifies.  I have a 43GB photo library of over 29000 shots that can get pokey at times.  Applying filters to a 100MB scan still takes quite a bit of time on my dual G5.

I have been surprised at how many PC owners have decided to make the Mac Pro their first Mac.  My cousin Scott.  My friend Eric.  Apple really hit the nail with the Mac Pro in price/performance.  Apple design & quality, and performance cheaper than the equivalent Dell by hundreds of dollars.

So, it’s official.  You have my permission to buy me one of these 8-core machines when they come out.  I will not complain.

Firefox 2 Gets Some Attention

Mozilla Firefox 2 Logo

Nice post from Chad Alderson today about features he likes in Firefox 2.0.

Firefox 2 Owns

I’ve already posted about my favorite unsung feature in Firefox 2 – the ability to automatically recover all of your tabs in the case the computer or Firefox exits unexpectedly. It single-handedly saved me over 45 minutes of work one night as I was blogging.

Chad, however, has picked up on spell-check and better tab navigation as his favorite features.

I’m personally attached to Firefox because I have such close friends on Mozilla team. They have a tough problem – Firefox is clearly the front-runner and thought leader for modern browser design. Others can make significant progress through imitation – the Mozilla community has to really move in new directions to keep ahead of the pack.

Firefox really popularized tab browsing, so it’s not suprising to see that they are able to take the feature set to the next level. Enhanced navigation, session recovery are all insights you develop once you already have familiarity with tabbed browsing.

It’s very interesting to me to see which features people find useful in Firefox 2, and which features they love. I predict they’ll be separate lists. I think spell check is probably the most useful feature to date for me, but thanks to that one crash, the saved session is my favorite feature by far.

Kudos again to the Mozilla team for a great launch. If you haven’t already, go get Firefox 2!

SpotDJ Beta for iTunes is Live

Actually, it went live about a week ago.

SpotDJ Logo

What happened today, however, is that Scott Kleper, one of the co-founders, added a blog post about SpotDJ and some of the insights from launching the product.

SpotDJ Makes iTunes Better

Not being a big music lover myself, it’s hard for me to completely see the opportunity that Scott sees here. I see that more as a blind spot in my own understanding of the “music lover” rather than any assessment of the business opportunity for SpotDJ. As I posted earlier, I do find the idea of iTunes as a demand-generation platform fascinating – the same way I find Salesforce thinking of their application as a demand-generation platform fascinating.

Being a product guy, however, I did appreciate this tidbit from Scott’s post about a feature that they built for personalization of profiles on SpotDJ:

One of the features that we launched with the beta was the “30 Second Random Interview”. As a registered DJ, you can go to your profile page and answer 3 randomly chosen questions (e.g. “What’s the most embarassing song on your iPod?”). Once you’ve answered all 3, another one shows up. So you can keep answering questions, and the results of your interview are displayed on your public DJ page for other users to see. People love this feature! We have DJ’s who have signed up and answered all 20 or so questions (including, oddly enough, “What kinds of spots do you record?”) without even recording a single spot yet! I think it shows a Web 2.0 truism — you can build web sites that are simply fun to use. We could have made SpotDJ just a download site, but by adding some social features and cool things to explore, we made it a fun site to hang out on.

I think Scott is dead on here, and you can bet that I’ll be bringing this topic up as we discuss new features for the sites that I’m responsible for. There is a really positive insight from the recent growth of Web 2.0 sites around the engagement that people find in sharing personal insights and information with others. I like the simple design that SpotDJ went with on this as well.

So, if you haven’t checked out SpotDJ yet, you should. And if you haven’t thought about how to allow users to better engage with your site and each other on your site, you should.

eBay Reputation, Shipping Prices & Ending Times

A big thank you to one of the great product managers at eBay, Rebecca Nathenson, for forwarding me this German study on eBay economics. (I would link to her blog, but she is hiding it from me…)

The Effect of Reputation on Selling Prices in Auctions (PDF)
by Oliver Gürtler & Christian Grund

As I mentioned in my previous post about starting prices, I have a strong interest in academic studies on the economics of eBay, the largest online marketplace globally. I am convinced that our level of understanding of the economics of marketplaces like eBay are still in their infancy.

As someone who has been selling on eBay since 1998, this study covers three topics that are easily familiar: reputation, shipping prices, and ending times. The study is from May 2006, and it is based on the eBay Germany site, but their is no reason to believe that they are country specific.

The first piece of the study looks at the effect of feedback on final selling prices on eBay. They confirm the obvious – reputation does impact final selling price positively. What’s interesting here is that it seems that the overall number of negatives did not have a measurable effect on final selling price. However, the percentage of negatives did. This result verifies anecdotal experience from many eBay buyers and sellers who will tell you that the “percent positive” is their primary measure of eBay reputation, once feedback scores rise beyond an initial threshold.

The second interesting tidbit from this study is their study of shipping prices. Once again, it confirms the obvious – higher shipping prices lower final sale prices. However, the interesting tidbit here is the fact that one dollar of increased shipping led to less than one dollar in reduced final sales price. This means that sellers may be better off charging a fair cost for shipping & handling, rather than assuming that if they offer low shipping that the cost will be made up in the auction price.

When I first started selling computer components in bulk, I experimented with different combinations of price and shipping cost. In one experiment, I took the exact same listing & description, and set different prices for the item & shipping, but left the total the same. They ranged from $15.99 with free shipping all the way to $0.99 with $15 shipping.

The result – the best selling item, measured in page views and conversion rate, was the $9.99 price with $6.00 shipping.

My theory at the time was that two human factors were occurring here. First, people see exorbitant shipping as dishonest. As a result, the listings with ultra high shipping looked dishonest, and it resulted in a lower purchase rate. At the same time, although buyers love free shipping, they were confronted with sticker shock from the high $15.99 price. Clearly, gas stations know what they are doing when they price gasoline to the 9/10 of a cent.

In their words:

The results with respect to the other variables indicate that postage affects sales revenue negatively, which was expected. However, an increase of postage in the amount of 1 € does decrease the price only by the amount of 5 per cent on average, which means by about 60 Cent at an averaged price of 12 €… In our case, however, it seems to be beneficial for sellers to segregate the total revenue into the two dimensions postage and selling price, because potential buyers concentrate on the main price during auctions and neglect the amount of the postage.

The last interesting insight from this research is their investigation of the effect of duration and ending time on the final selling price.  Interestingly, there is a surprise here, which they dub the eBay Evening Fallacy.  They claim that auctions that end in the evening perform worse than auctions that end earlier.  As an interesting side note, they also found no evidence that duration impacts the final selling price.

What’s interesting about this insight is that it doesn’t really explain why this fallacy exists.  One possibility is that historically, evening ending times did perform better than earlier times.  However, as this became known, supply overwhelmed demand as everyone piled onto the same popular times.

I think actually this is a nice place to end this review, because in the end, while fascinating, the last insight is a warning.  eBay is a dynamic marketplace, and as information flows through the market, the profitability of different strategies may change over time.  Everyone knows they vary by country, by category, and by season.  They also can vary based on what everyone else is doing.

In finance, there is a theory of efficient markets that posits that public information flows nearly instantaneously through the stock market.  As a result, all returns are merely compensation for risk. Part of the attraction of private equity is the fact that it operates in a world, by definition, of more limited information and more limited access.  That’s what yields those wonderful returns that Venture Capital has seen over time.

It’s interesting to think of eBay in that light.  Strategies are always evolving, as information is communicated about how to succeed on eBay.   Are proprietary access to inventory, or proprietary strategies the keys to outperformance?  Efficient market theory has a risk-free return built into its model.  Does eBay have the equivalent of a risk-free return, and if so, what is it?

That’s why I love research like this.  It goes beyond the anecdotal and makes you think.

Will Wright is a Genius (Spore)

For some reason, I’ve been posting a lot about video games lately. I’m not sure why, since with all the commotion at home, it has been literally months since I’ve been able to play anything.

After all, I’ve already sold my Gamecube & PS2 in anticipation of getting the next-generation machines in 2007.

Still, it would not be right to talk about video games, and not tip my hat to Will Wright, creative genius behind a large number of games including The Sims.

For those of you uninitiated into the magic of his upcoming game, Spore, you can get some basic info here. Spore attempts to marry all the elements of various simulation games that have drawn me in the past. Everything from creature creation, evolution, village building, technology maps, global domination, and galactic conquest.

As a wonderful sign of the times, you can find extensive demos of Spore right now on YouTube! Some feature Will Wright himself!

It may sound juvenile to some, but I have always had the utmost respect for creators of great games. Of course, growing up in the video game era, I’ve logged literally thousands of hours in my life, from the Atari 2600 & Apple ][ all the way to today’s consoles and PCs. But that isn’t the reason.

Writing this blog has led me to some epiphanies about why I find so much interest in certain things, and I now realize that video games fit the definition of this blog in a way I hadn’t initially considered.  Building a great video game requires a marriage of understanding of people and technology.
Most great video games push technology to the limits, but that’s not always required. Tetris & SimCity are examples of great games that didn’t push technical limits.

More than anything, great video games are first and foremost great games. Building a great game requires an understanding of narrative and competition, interaction and presentation. Video games must contain enough complexity to generate dozens of hours of continuous engagement, and yet enough simplicity to seduce a new player quickly and easily.

At the same time, like an artist leveraging the voice of their medium, great gamemakers make the most of their medium – technology.  Just as a sculptor works with stone differently than brass, so too a great gamemaker will work differently depending on the platform.

When I began the graduate program in Computer Science at Stanford in Human Computer Interaction, I remember evaluating in detail the genius behind the original Mario 64 video game. Nintendo, the company that effectively saved video games in the late 1980s, had managed to take the standard 2D platform game, and elegantly translate it to 3D. More importantly, they had expanded the definition of fluid 3D control with their new controller, which allowed for incredible freedom of expression. They created a world for Mario that was 3D, and yet felt contiguous with the previous Mario properties in a way that didn’t seem bizarre like Disney’s attempts at a 3D Mickey.

Spore looks like one of those singular events in gaming, like World of Warcraft, that will take a genre to a new level. I have every confidence that Will Wright is going to launch another masterpiece.

The only question is… can I really wait for Maxis/EA to release a Mac version?