Q&A with Milton Friedman: Education, Health Care & Iraq

There is a wonderful Q&A with Milton Friedman in today’s San Jose Mercury News. Milton Friedman is 94, and won the Nobel Prize for economics in 1976.

He is most famous for being the intellectual backbone for more libertarian monetary policy, and the economic grounding for the Reagan administration.

MercuryNews.com | 11/05/2006 | Q&A with Milton Friedman

It is very hard to read the writings of Friedman, or even his live Q&A, without being immediately struck by the depth of his intellect and the strength of his convictions. You may disagree with some of his policy conclusions, but his type of clarity is rare.

Since I was only 5 years old when Reagan was elected, I obviously didn’t appreciate at the time the momentous step this country took in rejecting Jimmy Carter and embracing Reagan in the heart of hyper-inflation, recession, and international trauma. However, I’ve learned over time that many of the aspects of the Reagan administration that I did appreciate seem to be derivatives of Milton Friedman’s philosophy.

I’m going to reproduce the text of the article here, only because I don’t trust the SJ Mercury news to keep the link live forever. However, if the link above still works, use it.

Q&A with Milton Friedman
NOBEL PRIZE WINNER EXPOUNDS ON EDUCATION, HEALTH CARE, IRAQ

By Scott Duke Harris
Mercury News

When Milton Friedman talks, not everybody listens. To many, his libertarian views are predictable. But he always offers grist for debate.

Friedman recently sat down with the Mercury News for an interview. Following are edited excerpts of the conversation:

Q You’ve described yourself as “a libertarian with a small ‘I’ and a Republican with a capital ‘R,’ ” for expediency. Yet you’ve expressed disappointment with Republican control of the federal government. Why?

A If you look at the record, the structure of government that is most favorable to low spending and low taxes is a Democrat in the White House and Republicans in control of both houses of Congress, because the spending propensities of the Democrats are held down by Republicans. And when you have a Republican government in power, those spending propensities aren’t held down. In this case, we’ve got Republicans all around, and the budget has gotten out of control.

Obviously the Republicans had been out of [the White House] for a long time, and when they got it [in 2000], they had things they wanted to do, and they did it regardless of the budget consequences.

The problem is not the deficit. The problem is the amount of spending — the fraction of people’s income — which is spent for them, on their behalf by their government.

Q But many people find the deficits troubling.

A I am not concerned with deficits in the federal budget at all. I am concerned with the level of the federal budget. I’d rather have a $1 trillion budget with a deficit of $1 trillion, than have a $2 trillion budget that is completely balanced with taxes.

The deficit is a form of hidden taxation. . . . So I’m not satisfied with a high structural deficit, but it’s really because that implies a high level of government spending.

Q What troubles you about the spending?

A Everything. Most of the spending is wasted. . . . The worst is the “earmarks,” because they have no democratic control at all, being arbitrarily set in by individual members.

If you take education: The federal constitution doesn’t have the word education in it, but every state constitution does. . . . In 1994, when the Republicans took over [Congress], their “Contract With America” included abolishing the Department of Education. Instead, 12 years later now, the [department’s] budget has tripled or quadrupled — something like that.

Q Your ideas influenced the rise of economic conservatism, from Reagan to George Bush today. How would you compare the Reagan and Bush administrations?

A The thing that endears [Reagan] is that he was a person of principle. He was willing to take political chances in order to promote his principles.

At the time Reagan became president, in 1980, we had gone through a period of high inflation and high unemployment. The Federal Reserve, after Reagan got elected, changed to a very restrictive policy, which broke the back of the inflation, but also created a very substantial recession. And Reagan’s standing in public opinion polls went way down.

No other president in the post-war period would have stuck with that policy. Every one of them would have forced the Fed to reverse that policy before it really broke the hold on recession. . . .

I think the problem with the Bush administration is that the whole thing is dominated by Iraq. . . . I think going into Iraq was a mistake. But once you got into it, you’ve got to live with what you’re doing. And it would be an equally big mistake, or bigger, to pull out prematurely. You’ve got to try to come out with some honor and some measure of success. I don’t know how to do it, and the prospects do not look good. The situation looks terrible. . . .

To look beyond Iraq, Bush had been on the right side. He cut taxes, and he was in favor of trying to privatize Social Security. . . . He’s been in favor of getting rid of the inheritance tax, which is the right thing.

Q Is there no tax you like?

A Yes, there are taxes I like. For example, the gasoline tax, which pays for highways. You have a user tax. The property tax is one of the least bad taxes, because it’s levied on something that cannot be produced — that part that is levied on the land. So some taxes are worse than others, but all taxes are bad.

As things are now, taxes amount to something like 35 to 40 percent of national income, if you include federal, state and local taxes. Out of every dollar the average citizen earns, he gets to spend 60 cents of it — and not according to his own views, because the government also steps in and says what you can and cannot spend on. For example, according to the government, you cannot spend it on cocaine. I’m in favor of legalization of all drugs.

Q And prostitution?

A Well, sure.

Q What are the economic issues you’re thinking about now?

A On the one hand, health care. And on the other hand, education . . .

We have a very poor education system. I’m talking about elementary and secondary. Something like a quarter to a third of all youngsters never graduate high school and those who graduate high school are in many cases barely literate in terms of reading, writing and arithmetic. In international comparisons, our kids do quite well at grade 1 to 4, but as you go up the grade levels, the performance gets worse and worse in comparison other countries. So it looks like we have a system that teaches kids not to learn rather than one that teaches them to learn.

And in health care today, most transactions are third party transactions. Traditionally, you would go to the doctor and there would be a deal between you and him. Direct payment. [Today] that almost never happens because of insurance — so-called insurance.

It’s a misnomer really. It isn’t insurance at all. Insurance makes sense when you have a small probability for a large cost and you want to share that probability with others. But it doesn’t make sense for ordinary day-to-day care. What we call medical insurance is not really insurance at all. It’s pre-paid medical care.

Q How would you respond?

A By getting rid of third-party payment — by returning it to a deal between the patient and the provider. You don’t need that institutional framework. That huge framework largely is the result of third-party payment.

Q Has anything in recent history made you question your convictions?

A No, on the contrary. . . . The basic conviction is that the biggest danger to human freedom comes from government. . . .

The collapse of the Soviet Union has persuaded almost everybody around the world that collective organization is not a good way to run a country.

Is there anybody now who believes that’s a good way to run a country? I don’t think so.

Roth IRA Loophole: Everyone Can Qualify in 2010

This is not really new news, but I thought it was interesting enough to share broadly. Since it’s about saving for retirement, hopefully some of you out there will get some benefit from this information.

Om May 17, 2006, President Bush signed the Tax Increase Prevention and Reconciliation Act of 2005 (TIPRA). It’s very likely that this news didn’t really get your attention, but if you are an active saver for retirement, it should.

One of the best innovations for retirement savings in the last ten years has been the Roth IRA. The Roth IRA is an Individual Retirement Account, and like other IRAs, it is a special type of account with tax advantages to help people save for their retirement.

The magic of the Roth IRA is that it turns the tax liability for normal IRAs on its head. Most retirement accounts, like 401Ks and IRAs allow you to put money into the account, and deduct the contributions from your income. Your savings then gets to build, tax-free, until you retire. You think have to pay full income tax on the withdrawals.

This is a big benefit, and a great way to help save for retirement. However, the Roth IRA improves on this quite a bit.

With a Roth IRA, you do not get the deduction up front. In fact, you can only fund a Roth IRA with post-tax money. However, the magic is, once it goes in a Roth IRA, you will never pay taxes on it again – or the gains. For a young person in their 20s and 30s, this is an amazing way to accumulate wealth over the long term. Roth IRAs also have some tax benefits for estate planning.

Sounds good, right? In fact, there is only one big problem with the Roth IRA. It’s a benefit that isn’t available to people who make higher incomes. The limits of the program are that you must make less than $95K as an individual, or $150K married, to either contribute or convert an existing IRA to a Roth IRA.

Here’s where the loophole comes in.

As part of the tax act, Congress has officially abolished the income limits for Roth IRA conversion in 2010. That means you will able to convert existing IRAs into Roth IRAs, regardless of income. You can’t contribute to a Roth IRA if your income is too high, but you can convert an existing IRA.

“Great,” you say. “Hooray for 2010.” But this is where the loophole comes in.

You can start funding your regular, non-deductible IRAs this year, in 2006. You can continue to do this in 2007, 2008 & 2009. Then in 2010, you can convert all of these funds over to the Roth IRA. And since the non-deductible IRA is funded with after-tax money, you will only have to pay a small amount of tax on the conversion based on the gains from 2006 to 2010.

This is a fantastic window to convert a sizeable amount of savings into a Roth IRA, even if Congress only keeps this window open for one year.

Some people might ask, why would Congress offer this great incentive? Actually, it was done to help bring in revenue in the short term. This opening in 2010 will draw a lot of money into the Roth IRA program, which will generate a lot of taxes in 2010 as people convert their funds over. Because our government tends to only focus on the short term (5-10 years), this looks like a gain because the lower tax revenue from the Roth accounts doesn’t hit for decades.

Everyone’s financial situation is different, but if you’ve been interested in Roth IRA accounts, and you’ve been unable to participate, your window is now open.

Here is another article I found on the same topic.

Blogs I Read: Mac Mojo (The Microsoft Office for Mac Team Blog)

This is a relatively new one for me, but I find the posts pretty interesting from time to time.

This is the team blog from the group responsible for Microsoft Office for the Mac.  Most people don’t realize this, but Microsoft Office actually originated on the Mac, and despite all the conspiracy theories, the business continues to be a fairly large one for Microsoft.

For example, check out this post from yesterday about the size of the Microsoft Office for Mac codebase.  It shocked the hell out of me:

It’s all in the numbers… 

30 million lines of code.  For a suite of applications.  Unbelievable.

For those of you non-technical folks out there, this is a really big number.  I remember when it was revealed that Windows XP was approximately 40 million lines of code, and Sun had a field day pointing out that Solaris was only 7 million at the time.

In software, bigger is rarely better from a complexity or reliability standpoint.  This blog post explains some of the very human reasons why.

I personally have always believed that a complete rewrite is likely necessary from time to time with software applications, usually every 3rd to 4th major version or so.  The problem is, the economics so rarely support re-writing a codebase.  The time you spend rebuilding what already works could be spent on building new features, or fixing old ones.

In a small way, this legacy cost is what helps fuel the ongoing development of new applications, new companies, and new businesses.  It is always easy for the new entrant to “rebuild” what already exists.  This doesn’t make up for the incredible market advantage that the large players have, but it’s an interesting cost advantage that you don’t normally see in most industries.

Anyway, check it out.  Since I am a longtime Office for Mac user, I like seeing ongoing communication from their team to the community.

Blogs I Read: Good Morning Silicon Valley

This is actually a blog I’ve been reading since before there were blogs, and this was just a daily email sent out by John Paczkowski.

I don’t know why, but I just find John’s nose for news interesting, and his wry sense of humor engaging. Take yesterday’s post for example:

Ha ha! You fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous is never get involved in a land war in Asia, but only slightly less well-known is this: nobody ever benefits from a Microsoft partnership except Microsoft!

I just find “The Princess Bride” reference hilarious, and of course, the coverage of Microsoft timely with the Novell Linux deal.

This is definitely one worth adding to your feed list, especially if you care at all about high tech and/or news from Silicon Valley. This blog is hosted by the SJ Mercury News, but it’s still worth reading.

Coming Soon: The Presidential $1 Dollar Coin Program

So, if it wasn’t clear from my previous post and eBay Guide on the US State Quarters Program, I like to collect coins. As a result, I tend to follow bulletins from the US Mint with a little more interest than average.

Looks like November 20 is the day that the US Mint will take the wraps off the designs of the first four Presidential dollar coins.

For those of you unfamiliar with the program, the basic idea is that the US Government will be producing special versions of the $1 coin, one for each President of the United States. Four coins will be produced every year, finishing out the program in 2017 or so. The reason the ending is vague is because they will not produce a coin for any living President, so the question is whether or not any currently living (or upcoming) Presidents make it to 2016.

You can read a really nice writeup of the program here on Wikipedia.

This program was put into place by the Predential $1 Coin Act of 2005, which also brought us the first 24K US Bullion Gold coin, the American Buffalo.

The US Mint is starting to think more like a business, and given the incredible success of the 50 State Quarter Program, it was inevitable that someone would do the math on how much the government makes printing money that people like to collect instead of spend.

Although the US Mint runs a risk of “collector fatigue” if they play this card too much, I think this program will be a lot of fun for several reasons:

  1. A dollar is worth collecting. American coins haven’t really kept up with inflation. When a candy bar at the supermarket is $0.99, even small kids know that pennies may not get you very far. A dollar is still substantial, and it should attract some interest from kids who might tie a pile of dollar coins to some significant savings.
  2. A reason to learn history. Learning the 50 States is fun. Learning about the US Presidents will have additional depth because each one represents a length of time in US history.
  3. Gotta have them all! The most valuable proof set in a long time has been the 1999 Silver Proof Set – the first to offer the state quarters, before people realized how popular this program would be. Minting four new coins a year ensures a variety of collectible sets, and rewards for people who have the patience to collect through the entire program. Nothing gets collector blood pumping than the idea that there is an entire set of variations to collect.

I think the US Mint is getting a little greedy by printing up “companion gold coins” of each first lady. I’m not sure most people even know most of the first ladies through history, let alone want to pay for them in solid gold form.

Still, you know I’ll have my orders in place for these coins. I’ll likely be buying some for myself, and some to sell on eBay to help fund my collection.

Go check out the US Mint on November 20th for the new designs. The first year will be:

  1. George Washington
  2. John Adams
  3. Thomas Jefferson
  4. James Madison

It’s going to be exciting… in a coin collecting sort-of way.

Update (11/20/2006): The day has come… please see my new post on the unveiling of the first four designs at the US Mint:

US Mint Unveils the 2007 Presidential Dollar Coins

Update (12/27/2006): I’ve posted additional details about the new First Spouse coin program

The 2007 First Spouse 24K Gold Coin Program

Update (02/15/2007): The dollars are here! Here is my first day coverage

New Insights from the Launch of the Presidential $1 Dollar Coin

Update (5/17/2007):  The John Adams dollar coins have been released! 

The John Adams Presidential $1 Dollar Coin is Available

A Reef Reflected in a Bubble (courtesy of Eric Cheng)

Eric has posted just an amazing photo on his daily blog, and I thought I’d share it here.

Reef in a Bubble

I think it’s just an amazing shot. Having taken approximately 30,000 shots myself now, I can safely say that inevitably any photos that Eric takes are noticeably better than mine. Thank goodness for our family that he humors us with trips out to the suburbs once in a while.

Most of my shots these days are not of anything quite so exotic. I’ve been spending my time trying to get the perfect shot of my new son, Joseph Isaac Nash.

Rant: The Comcast HD DVR Is Simply, Terribly Awful

I usually don’t like to just post a pointer to another blog, but in this case, I have to.

John Battelle, clearly in an emotional moment, posted this evisceration of the Comcast HD DVR today versus his Tivo experience.

I had a chance to meet John briefly, as he came to speak at eBay about a year ago on the future of search & media. While we don’t agree on everything going on in the industry, it’s nice to see that John & I are two kindred spirits when it comes to love of the Tivo.

When you think about it, the DVR problem isn’t very complex anymore, really. How hard would it be to just copy the Tivo? However, interestingly, it seems like every DVR maker now tries to “improve” on the Tivo experience, and in the process, manages to display to the whole world how little they understand about the design nuances that make the Tivo experience wonderful.

I am in a very small audience of people who have actually deferred adopting HDTV until I can find a Tivo solution that makes sense for my household. We’re incredibly dependent on our two DirecTivos, and with DirecTV’s suicidal abandonment of Tivo, I’m left waiting for either the Tivo Series 3 to come down in price, or for the Comcast/Tivo solution to prove itself viable.

Anyway, read John’s rant. It brightened my whole day.

The $812K Question: Will Social Security Be Around in 2045?

Well, OK. $812,450. That’s what Social Security means to me, roughly.

Why? Well, I’m in a saving mindset these days. I’ve saved money over the years for many personal goals – a new computer, a vacation, and yes, even a first home. I also started saving for my retirement quite early, at the age of 20. Now, with two children, you also can add college to the mix of savings goals.

So, it’s ironic that this week I received my annual “Social Security” statement from the US Government. Unfortunately, it really doesn’t answer the fundamental question I have about the program – can/should I count on it, or not? This article came out today on the Vanguard feed, and it got me thinking about the issue.

Based on the best web sources I can dig up, it looks like I’m due $32,498 in 2045, the first year I’m going to be eligible for full benefits. That’s in 2005 dollars – with inflation, the nominal amount will be much more. However, using 2005 dollars makes it easier to place the value in the here & now.

When you think about retiring, you have to think about how to live off your assets. In a funny way, you are basically “endowing” yourself, much as the wealthy will endow tenured chairs at universities, or even departments. A typical endowment, like Harvard’s, will limit withdrawals to 4% a year, to ensure that they will never run out of money. They’ve been around more than 350 years, so it’s likely they know what they are doing.

I use the 4% rule myself when thinking about generating income from assets, safely, on an ongoing basis. It makes it very easy to figure out how much money you might need to retire, for example. Just take the annual income you want, and multiply by 25. Simple.

So, if you want $100K per year, in today’s dollars, you would need $2.5M invested, in today’s dollars. Simple, but sobering.

$32,498 per year may not sound like a wealthy income level, but it’s the maximum the US Government provides as part of the current Social Security program. Using the rule of 25, you’d have to have $812,450 saved up in your 401K to provide the same for yourself.

Scary number, given the fact that the average 55-year old has less than $50K saved in their 401K plan. Hopefully, our generation will be better about individual responsibility and saving than the previous generation, but I’m not sure I’ve found any economic statistic that actually suggests that.

I have never personally put much faith in the current incarnation of the Social Security program being around for me in 2045. In the late 1980s, I remember researching policy debate topics around retirement in high school, and the overwhelming evidence that the current system is not solvent, and will not last to the middle of the 21st century. In a funny way, it’s a curse of our own success. Social Security is an insurance program, and it was implicitly a bet that economic productivity growth would match or surpass the expected length of retirement (based on longevity).

Productivity growth in the US over the last 70 years has been spectacular. Unbelievable. That’s why we are sitting on a $12 Trillion economy. However, when Social Security was born in the 1930s, longevity was expected to be in the mid 1960s, so most people were not expected to collect from the program, and those that did would only collect for a short while.

Now, we live in a society where more than 50% of people who live to 80 can expect to live to 90. Think about it – 65 to 90 is 25 years. There are still many jobs where 25 years is considered full service, and grants you title to a complete pension. Amazing.

I’m a technology optimist. I believe that we’re likely to unlock longevity measuring into the mid-100s during my lifetime. But what does that mean for programs like Social Security, or even for retirement itself?

In any case, I now realize that for my personal financial planning, my opinion of whether I believe in Social Security or not has a real practical implication for my personal saving. $812,450 is a lot of money to save on your own.

Then again, maybe it would be easier to save that over a working lifetime if 12.4% of your salary didn’t go missing every paycheck.

I think I’m still going to base my planning on the assumption that Social Security won’t be around in its current form in 2045. I always like to leave some upside in my planning anyway.

Remember the $1M Homepage? MMMZR takes Ponzi to Web 2.0

Seeing this type of site just makes you so angry that people could make money this way.

MMMZR homepage

The founder blog is here.

I guess I’m just kicking myself for not doing it first. The Ponzi scheme is a historically proven model for allocating money and gaining traction. Like the $1 Million homepage, I guess this business is a 100% based on his ability to generate press and therefore traffic to his single page.

Well, now I’m helping out… sigh.