US Mint Warnings: Fraud Surrounding Fake George Washington Dollar Coin Errors

To date, my posts on the new Presidential $1 Dollar Coin series have been some of my most popular. In particular, the posts about the two confirmed errors found on these new George Washington dollar coins have been off the charts most days:

In several of these posts, I’ve offered caution to buyers that these errors are relatively rare, and to be careful of fraud around sellers passing off “upside down lettering” as an error, and other unscrupulous tactics.

The US Mint today published specific warnings on their website today on these issues, and specifically about the issue of people grinding the edge lettering off dollar coins and passing them off as errors. The following is quoted directly from the US Mint Hot Items page on their website:

Fraudulent Presidential $1 Error Coins Being Sold

The United States Mint has recently learned that some individuals are grinding the rims of Presidential $1 Coins to remove the edge-incused inscriptions and then marketing these altered items as error coins. This practice not only exploits unwary consumers and collectors, but also is a Federal crime.

The United States Mint recently announced that an undetermined number of George Washington Presidential $1 Coins were minted and issued without the required edge-incused inscriptions, “E Pluribus Unum,” “In God We Trust,” the year of issuance, and the mint mark. Because true error coins such as these can be rare, they often become very attractive among collectors, many of whom are willing to acquire them at a premium above their face value. Apparently, some individuals are exploiting this situation by altering the rims of perfectly good Presidential $1 Coins to make them look like the recent error coins.

Although altering and defacing United States coinage generally is not illegal, doing so violates a Federal criminal statute (18 U.S.C. § 331) when the act is accompanied by an intent to defraud. Accordingly, a person is committing a Federal crime if he or she intentionally alters an ordinary Presidential $1 Coin to make it look like an error coin for the purpose of selling it at a premium to someone who believes it to be a real error coin. Under this statute, it is also a Federal crime to sell at a premium an ordinary Presidential $1 Coin that one knows has been altered so it looks like an error coin to someone who believes it to be a real error coin. Penalties include a fine and up to five years in prison.

The United States Mint has no Federal enforcement authority. Rather, it refers such matters to the United States Secret Service, which is lawfully authorized to detect and arrest any person who violates a Federal law relating to United States coinage.

Also note this warning about the upside-down lettering error scam:

Presidential $1 Coins With “Upside-Down” Edge-Lettering Are Not Errors

It has come to the attention of the United States Mint that some people are offering to sell so-called George Washington Presidential $1 “error” coins with “upside-down” edge-lettering on on-line auction sites. These coins are not “error” coins. The Presidential $1 Coins are inscribed on the edge without regard to their “heads” or “tails” orientation.

The edge-incused inscriptions on Presidential $1 Coins are the year of minting or issuance, “E Pluribus Unum,” “In God We Trust” and the mint mark. The United States Mint incuses these inscriptions on the edge of each coin at the second step of a two-step coining process. In the first step, the blanks are fed into a coining machine which impresses the obverse and reverse designs onto the coins, and dispenses the coins into a large bin. In the second step, the bin is transported to the edge-incusing machine, into which the coins are fed at random, without regard to their “heads” or “tails” orientation. Therefore, statistically, approximately one-half of the coins produced will have edge-lettering oriented toward the “heads” side (obverse), and approximately one-half of the coins will have the edge-incused inscriptions oriented toward the “tails” side (reverse).

Take care, and please pass on this information to other collectors as broadly as possible.

The US Mint Crawls into the 21st Century: RSS Feeds

This will be interesting only to a minority of readers, but it was a small highlight of my day, so I’m going to share it.

The US Mint has now published RSS feeds for their regular product announcements and press releases.

If you are a coin collector, this is an absolutely painless way to get updates when new coins and programs are announced. Just click and add to your favorite RSS reader.

Press Releases and Public Statements

Product Announcements

Enjoy.

Goodbye George Washington. Hello John Adams Presidential $1 Dollar Coin.

Well, it’s not quite time for goodbye. But soon.

With all the press about the George Washington dollar, I’m not sure that most people realize that the US Mint has already stopped producing them. That’s right, they’ve already begun production of the second Presidential $1 dollar coin, the coin for John Adams.

The Patriot Ledger in Boston has a really nice article on the new coin, and on John Adams.

There has been so much coverage about the errors on the new George Washington dollar coins that demand for the coins has been surprisingly high. Unfortunately for collectors, I think this means that the market is flush with them which may mean no significant appreciation for the George Washington version.

Personally, I expect that the excitement about the dollar coins to die down rapidly as they march through the Presidents. In many ways, you want demand to be low at the time of issuance, since that means fewer people will be stashing them away. That leads to higher prices down the road.

The US Mint has scheduled the release of the John Adams dollar coins for May, so there is still some time to get your George Washington dollars.

One nuance that is worth noting – it’s only for the 6 weeks after release that the Mint will be providing boxes of dollar coins for a single President. So come May, you won’t be able to go to the bank and get a box of George Washington dollar coins any more. You’ll either be able to get a box of the John Adams’ dollar coins, or a mixed box of golden dollar coins – Sacajawea, Washington, etc.

Update (5/17/2007):  The John Adams dollar coins have been released!  Read more here.

Update (5/24/2007): For a limited time only, I am now carrying unopened, original John Adams Presidential Dollar coin rolls in my eBay Store. Click here to buy them on eBay Express. If you are interested in the other rolls I am carrying, click here for all the coins I am currently selling.

New George Washington Dollar Coin Error Found: Faceless Coin

I’ve written a lot about the new Presidential Dollar Coin series, and the recent mint errors found with the coins. Some of my previous posts can be found on my Coins page, but the best ones are:

Well, a second significant error has been found, and it is much more substantial than the first. A Colorado couple has found a dollar coin that is missing it’s face. That’s right, move over “Godless” dollar, here comes the “Faceless” dollar.

Faceless2

This coin is a true rarity, and will likely be worth thousands of dollars. Unlike the thousands of coins missing edge lettering, this type of error involves missing a large number of mint quality checkpoints, and may be unique. From the Conservative Voice:

U.S. Mint spokesman Michael White said officials had not confirmed the Smiths’ find. But Ron Guth, a coin authenticator with Professional Coin Grading Service of Newport Beach, Calif., said he is certain the coin is authentic.

“It’s really pretty rare,” Guth said. “It somehow slipped through several steps and inspections.”

It could be worth thousands of dollars, maybe more, he said. The value will depend on how many similar misprints are found, but the Smiths’ will always be worth more because it will be the first one to be independently authenitcated, Guth said.

When you manufacture 300,000,000 of anything, you expect a few errors. Still, this one is very impressive, and will no doubt lead to further excitement about this new dollar coin in collecting circles.

As a public service announcement, let me just close again with the known errors that exist.

  • Missing Edge Lettering. These are the “Godless” dollars, called that because they are missing all the lettering on the edge of the coin, including the mint mark, the year, E Pluribus Unum, and In God We Trust. This error seems to have been sourced to a mint bag of 140,000 coins that may have missed edge printing in Philadelphia.
  • Missing Reverse Face. These are the “Faceless” dollars, only one verified to date. These coins are missing the Statue of Liberty on the back of the dollar coin.

There is no such thing as an Upside Down Lettering Error. The mint process for these coins is random, the lettering will be rotated on various coins, and is not guaranteed to be facing up or down.

Don’t be fooled into paying good money for a fake error.

Update (3/17/2007): If you are looking to buy original, unsearched bank rolls of the new George Washington dollar coins, I have procured a box of 40 rolls, in a box certified as wrapped on December 7, 2006. They are available here on eBay Express.  Sold out!  Will get more soon!

Update (5/24/2007): For a limited time only, I am now carrying unopened, original John Adams Presidential Dollar coin rolls in my eBay Store. Click here to buy them on eBay Express. I also have a few more original bank rolls of the George Washington dollar coins.  Click here to buy them on eBay Express.

If you are interested in the other rolls I am carrying, click here for all the coins I am currently selling on eBay Express.

Looking at Prices for George Washington Dollar Coins, and How to Search eBay Like a Champ

I’m not sure, but I think the storm of interest in George Washington Dollar Coins peaked yesterday. At least, based on sales on my rolls, and looking at prices, it seems like today was not a bigger day than yesterday.

One of the most common questions I get about eBay is how to use the site to research what the “fair price” is for an item. There are a lot of reasons people ask this question:

  • They are looking to buy something, and they want to know what a fair price is
  • They are looking to sell something on eBay, and they want to know what to expect
  • They are looking to sell something off eBay, but they still want to know what a fair price would be.

I was looking over the prices tonight for dollar coins, and I realized it’s a pretty good example to work from.

The first magic trick to figuring out prices on eBay is a good search. Yes, you read that right.

The hardest thing about figuring out pricing on eBay is the fact that it is just incredibly big. There are millions of different types of products sold on the site, and there isn’t a catalog in the world big enough to hold them all. If you go to the Apple Store, you would see all the current products that Apple sells, in all the configurations they currently offer. On eBay, you might likely see every model that Apple has ever has sold, in every possible configuration that Apple ever offered, and even configurations they didn’t!

The key to good price research is a good result set, and that means getting good at eBay search.

eBay search is actually incredibly powerful. There is a syntax to it that is very easy to learn, and can take your use of the site to a new level. eBay has a help page on the topic, but here are some of my tips:

  • Start with basic keywords. It may sound counter-intuitive, but don’t start with categories. Start with simple keywords from the homepage. Sometimes sellers put your product in categories that you might not expect. It’s best to start with some keywords that fit what you are looking for, and then only using categories to filter if you are seeing unrelated items from other categories.
  • Look at the result set. There is no magic right answer to the perfect query – a big part of the process is doing a search, looking at the items, and learning from them. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve done a search for something, like a piece of computer equipment, and then seen result titles that include the part number. I then do a search on the part number, and I find items that didn’t show up before. The marketplace represents the aggregated human intelligence of millions of people – learn from the keywords in their titles, and your searching will reach a new level.
  • “Or” is your friend. Sometimes, there are multiple words that represent what you are looking for. Laptop or Notebook. Roll or Rolls. PowerMac or Power Macintosh. If you enter a search on eBay for “Laptop Notebook”, you’ll get very few listings – only the ones that actually put both words in the title. But if you put the two words in parentheses, separated by a comma, like this: (Laptop, Notebook) – eBay know to look for listings with either “Laptop” or “Notebook” in the title. This is the most powerful trick for truly exploring the marketplace, especially as you learn new words from the item titles of the listings you find first.
  • Don’t like some results? Remove them! eBay search has another great operator, the minus sign. Just put it before a word, and eBay automatically removes any item with that word in the title. Incredibly powerful for “cleaning” your results. For example, let’s say you do a search for “Apple” hoping for computers, but you get a bunch of apple-scented lotion and candles in your results. Changing your search to: Apple -lotion -candle will all of a sudden clean your results to remove all lotion and candle listings.

So, when I wanted to explore the pricing of George Washing Dollar Coins, I ended up starting with this search:

Washington Dollar

Yikes. Too many individual coins. I’m selling rolls. So I added two good words for roll:

Washington Dollar (roll, rolls)

Much better, but I was still seeing some junk. So I minused out some of the worst offenders:

Washington Dollar (roll, rolls) -single -1982 -quarter

Much cleaner. Almost every listing was for a George Washington Dollar Coin Roll. Now to be picky, I could have refined it further for mint mark and for mint vs. bank roll, but this was good enough for my purposes. There is a always a trade-off between precision and recall. The more you sharpen your query, the more likely you are excluding some good listings with the bad. There is somewhat of an art to saying, “it’s good enough”.

Now, for the second magic trick: searching completed items.

That’s right. eBay allows you to search roughly the last two weeks of closed listings. You can see if they sold or didn’t sell, which format they were in, and what price.

All you have to do is click the little checkbox in the lower left, and sign in. eBay restricts this feature to registered users. However, registering is free, so I recommend it highly.

Now, a few years ago, this was the best you could do. These days, there are a number of third parties who sell tools to help you price different items using eBay data. eBay also has a tool which is available for a very low fee ($2.99 for two days, or $9.99 per month for the basic version) that lets you use advanced, user-friendly tools to go through data.

Here is a screenshot of the prices from tonight for my search, using eBay Marketplace Research Pro, the $24.99/month professional version of the tool. Notice that it lets me save my search, so I can easily check back on the prices for it with one click (awesome).

ebay-research-pro.png

How cool is that? It uses flash to show you the breakdown of prices day by day, format by format. Super cool. You can also see volume numbers – almost 3,000 listings sold in the eBay core marketplace, and about 200 sold from Stores. Not surprising for a popular product like this. You’ll also note the prices between the two differ. Some people think you pay more when you shop in an eBay Store than bidding on an auction, but when products are hot, that isn’t always the case. Here, the average price for a winning auction is over $52. The average price in an eBay Store is just $40.

Looking at the charts, there has been quite a ramp in the last two days in volume and price. Not surprising given the press coverage.

Now, these type of searches aren’t perfect. For example, this search includes all types of sellers, some with good reputations, some not. Some who accept PayPal, and some who don’t. Some who charge fair shipping, and some who don’t. Lately, I’ve been using eBay Express to also get a sense for what more professional sellers are charging for item. There is no completed items search on eBay Express, but since it is all fixed-price, it’s easy to see what the “going rate” is for a product.

In any case, with some of the tricks outlined above, pricing a product using eBay does not have to be black magic. Knowledge is power, and being able to search eBay well is definitely a skill worth having.

Update (3/17/2007): If you are looking to buy original, unsearched bank rolls of the new George Washington dollar coins, I have procured a box of 40 rolls, in a box certified as wrapped on December 7, 2006. They are availablehere on eBay Express.  Sold out!  Will get more soon!
Update (5/24/2007): For a limited time only, I am now carrying unopened, original John Adams Presidential Dollar coin rolls in my eBay Store. Click here to buy them on eBay Express. I also have a few more original bank rolls of the George Washington dollar coins.  Click here to buy them on eBay Express.

If you are interested in the other rolls I am carrying, click here for all the coins I am currently selling on eBay Express.

Update: The Press Frenzy about the “Godless” George Washington Dollar Coins

I didn’t originally think that today would be a big sales day for me on eBay, but it was.

About a week ago, I wrote a post here about the discovery of mint errors on some of the new George Washington Presidential $1 dollar coins.

George Washington Dollar Coins: First Significant Mint Error Found (Missing Edge Lettering)

Mint Error

A dollar coin with missing lettering above one with proper lettering

Well, it took a while, but the mainstream press caught on to the controversial angle on this error today, and in a big way. Ironically, it’s the angle that Ray commented on in his comments on my post – no edge lettering means no “In God We Trust” on the coins with the errors.

This article from Australia has coverage of the dollar coin that sold for $405 on eBay. For more detailed coverage, check out this piece in the New York Times:

New York Times: US Mint Good Creates Godless Dollars

An unknown number of new George Washington dollar coins were mistakenly struck without their edge inscriptions, including ”In God We Trust,” and are fetching around $50 apiece online…

So far the mint has only received reports of error coins coming from Philadelphia, mint spokeswoman Becky Bailey said.

Bailey said it was unknown how many coins lacked the inscriptions. Ron Guth, president of Professional Coin Grading Service, one of the world’s largest coin authentication companies, said he believes that at least 50,000 error coins were put in circulation.

”The first one sold for $600 before everyone knew how common they actually were,” he said. ”They’re going for around $40 to $60 on eBay now, and they’ll probably settle in the $50 range…”

The coin’s design has already spurred e-mail conspiracy theories claiming that the religious motto was purposely omitted. That rumor may have started because the edge lettering cannot be seen in head-on photographs of the coin.

To show you how seriously the US Mint is taking this “conspiracy theory,” check out this hastily written post on the US Mint website.

So, how did this impact me? Well, as I posted on this blog last week, I had acquired some of the original bank rolls of the George Washington dollar coins and listed them on eBay. (Click here if you are interested in buying some – I still have a few left)

In order to drive traffic to my Store listing, like any good eBay seller, I put up a $0.99 auction to get some bidding going and to pull people into my coins. Using the eBay Marketplace Research tool, it was easy to see that about 100 rolls were selling daily, mostly out of the core auction listings.

My auction was set to close at 5pm today, so I checked it around 3pm. Imagine my surprise when I saw that my little listing already had over 800 page views. That’s an incredibly high number – I usually consider one of my auctions successful when it gets on the order of 50-75 page views.

Not knowing what was happening, I flipped to My eBay, and I saw that an astounding 15 rolls had sold out of my eBay Store, just in the past few hours.

Well, now I know. It’s interesting – the eBay bidding activity showed up well before my normal news sources gave me a clue to the cause. It just goes to show you how liquid and real-time the eBay marketplace is.

People must be bidding up these early rolls, hoping that there are mint error coins in them. I wish them luck. The bidding on the auction ended at $56 for a single 25-coin roll. Quite a premium. Mint errors are normally a big deal, because they are rare. The catch here is, if this error is common enough, the error won’t end up being worth much. It’s a gamble, and only time will tell.

I wonder now if this mini-press boom will get more interest around collecting these coins. I had expected the normal press coverage for the first coin, and then a rapid drop off in attention. However, it seems like now everyone will be rushing to get the John Adams coin, in the hope that there will be errors there too (don’t count on it).

Update (3/17/2007): If you are looking to buy original, unsearched bank rolls of the new George Washington dollar coins, I have procured a box of 40 rolls, in a box certified as wrapped on December 7, 2006. They are availablehere on eBay Express.  Sold out!  Will get more soon!
Update (5/24/2007): For a limited time only, I am now carrying unopened, original John Adams Presidential Dollar coin rolls in my eBay Store. Click here to buy them on eBay Express. I also have a few more original bank rolls of the George Washington dollar coins.  Click here to buy them on eBay Express.

If you are interested in the other rolls I am carrying, click here for all the coins I am currently selling on eBay Express.

George Washington Dollar Coins: First Significant Mint Error Found (Missing Edge Lettering)

There is a nice post on the Coin Collectors Blog today about the new Presidential $1 Dollar Coin program. It seems that there have been verified reports of some of the dollar coins actually missing their edge lettering. The Tallahassee Democrat verifies at least five of these coins, and apparently one has already sold on eBay for $46.

It’s unclear at this point how many coins will have this problem, but this sounds like a true collectible error. Some people have been trying to pass off “upside down” lettering as an error, but it isn’t as the Mint is not orienting the coins one way or the other when adding the edge lettering.

When there is a new process like the “incused edge”, it’s inevitable that there will be errors. Keep your eye out for new dollar coins missing the lettering. They will inevitably be worth more than $1.

Ironically, for those people out there looking to get “In God We Trust” off US coins, these mint errors might be especially valuable. 🙂

Update (3/7/2007): Given the amazing amount of press coverage today, I’ve posted an update on the mint errors, with some insights into how its driving activity on eBay.

Update (3/17/2007): If you are looking to buy original, unsearched bank rolls of the new George Washington dollar coins, I have procured a box of 40 rolls, in a box certified as wrapped on December 7, 2006. They are availablehere on eBay Express.  Sold out!  Will get more soon!
Update (5/24/2007): For a limited time only, I am now carrying unopened, original John Adams Presidential Dollar coin rolls in my eBay Store. Click here to buy them on eBay Express. I also have a few more original bank rolls of the George Washington dollar coins.  Click here to buy them on eBay Express.

If you are interested in the other rolls I am carrying, click here for all the coins I am currently selling on eBay Express.

Pssst. Want to Buy Some George Washington Dollar Coins?

Last night, I got a very special treat when I came home from work.

My new inventory for my eBay Store arrived. Here is a pretty nice shot of the package.

GW_Dollar_Box

That’s right. Perfect, Brilliant Uncirculated (BU) original bank rolls (OWA) of the very first Presidential $1 Dollar Coin featuring George Washington. 2007 D mint mark.

You can buy one now right here on eBay Express. Save on shipping if you buy more than one at a time.

I have to say, now that I’ve torn open a roll, the coins are gorgeous. Much better than the Sacajawea dollars. The edge lettering is particularly neat, and the brightness of the coins is noticeably improved.

Get them while they are still in stock! These coins will only be produced for a few more weeks, and then they will be discontinued in favor of the coin featuring John Adams.

Update (5/24/2007): For a limited time only, I am now carrying unopened, original John Adams Presidential Dollar coin rolls in my eBay Store. Click here to buy them on eBay Express. If you are interested in the other rolls I am carrying, click here for all the coins I am currently selling.

Fun Facts from the US Mint Website: Job Openings!

I don’t why I like the US Mint website so much. It’s so archaic and poorly organized.

And yet, I find myself clicking around, looking for undiscovered gems. For example, it wasn’t so long ago that I discovered the US Mint website had a whole section that outlined production numbers for all normal coins that the US Mint produces. Interesting information that is hard to find elsewhere. Where is it hidden? Underneath the “About Us” link… who would have guessed?

I have made money, in the past, by buying coins directly of the US Mint website, and then turning them around and selling them on eBay. It’s always surprising to me how many coin collectors know enough about online shopping to buy on eBay, but don’t necessarily know that you can buy coins from the US Mint online.

Well, here is my little find tonight. Not that I’m looking to move to Washington, D.C., but I guess the job market is getting hot. The US Mint now has a link to some very strange government website where you can see all the jobs available at the US Mint.

There are some fun ones here that you just don’t find elsewhere. Like this one, as a Lead Transfer Engraver. $26-$30 per hour. I clicked through, but I have no idea how you’d become qualified for this … my university didn’t offer courses in numesmatic engraving. Budget cuts, I guess.

But, as I scan the list, there are some surprising high paying jobs for the US Government. A few Project Management roles, and an Accountant position or two.

The highest paying role? Supervisory Business Management Specialist. $110K – $143K per year. This is actually quite high for a government job – it’s almost as high as the salary that a US Congressman makes!

I can’t make heads or tails of the actual requirements, but it sounds an awful lot like a general marketing management role. I love how the combination of Human Resources and US Government regulations leads to requirements for this role like:

To be eligible at the GS-15 [level for this role], candidates must have been a GS-14 for fifty-two weeks, when applicable.

Well, that clears everything up now, doesn’t it? 🙂

So, coin lovers out there, ask yourself – are you willing to move to Washington, DC? Your dream job may be out there, waiting.

New Insights from the Launch of the Presidential $1 Dollar Coin

Today was the day. February 15, 2007. The official launch of the new Presidential $1 Dollar Coins, with the introduction of the first coin, the George Washington dollar.  My original review of this program is still one of my most popular posts of all time.

The New York Times had suprisingly good coverage today.

New York Times: A Push for Dollar Coins, Using Presidential Fervor

I have covered the program in detail in earlier posts, but there were a few tidbits here that I thought were worth calling out.

First, huge rolls of sheet metal from outside suppliers are unwound into a machine that stamps out blanks, called planchets. Each planchet is squeezed between rollers to give it a raised rim and then softened by heating. Then it is burnished and coated, to produce the highly polished look.

The planchets are then fed into a press that applies over 80 metric tons of pressure, firing like a car engine to turn out as many as 750 coins a minute. The freshly minted dollars are carted to another machine where the edge lettering is pressed into them (right side up or upside down, at random) before being weighed, counted and poured into large Kevlar bags ready for shipping.

Did you notice the part that said right side up or upside down, at random? Now, that’s an ingredient for some additional collectibility. The “Edge-Incused Lettering” is one of the new features of the coin, allowing more space on the coin for bigger images, and a unique look and edge feel. If the lettering is applied at random, then the following variants will exist:

  • Lettering facing the front of the coin (Presidential image)
  • Lettering facing the back of the coin (Liberty)

I checked the US Mint website, incredulous that I had missed this detail. Sure enough, I found this quote:

These coins will feature edge-incused inscriptions of the year of minting or issuance, “E Pluribus Unum,” “In God We Trust” and the mint mark. Due to the minting process used on the circulating coins, the edge-incused inscription positions will vary with each coin.

Reading this, it sounds like the lettering will not even start at the same place on every coin. Maybe some of the coins will have text starting at the top of the portrait, others might have text rotated 90 degrees. Will this important to collectors? I’m not sure, but I would think in my mind that a perfect coin would have lettering that started with the top of the portrait.

Maybe this is a sign that I’m a little too detail oriented with coins.

I also thought the New York Times had some good detail on the costs of coins vs. bills, with some new information I hadn’t seen before:

  • It costs $0.20 to make a coin, but only $0.04 to make a bill
  • A bill lasts 18-22 months, a coin lasts 30 years
  • It seems that the issuance of bills vs. coins has some difference in treatment with the issuance of securities to back the currency. As a result, the US collects interest on the float from bills, but not on coins (this didn’t make sense to me, but this part wasn’t written clearly).

Actually, I had a new idea on the whole bill vs. coin debate. Why don’t we have a special election on whether or not eliminate the bill in favor of the coin, with these rules:

  • People who want the bill, if they are in the majority, agree to a small tax increase to cover the $500 Million a year to support it. This tax increase will only be levied against the people who voted to keep the bill.
  • People who don’t want the bill, if they are in the majority, will receive a tax deduction matching the savings from eliminating the bill. Only people who vote against the bill will receive the deduction.
  • People who don’t vote won’t receive the tax or the deduction.

My guess is that people who want the bill aren’t actually willing to pay for it.

How Rational Are We? The Dollar Coin vs. Dollar Bill Debate

A lot of big news coming out now about thew new Presidential $1 Dollar Coins, set to launch Thursday with the first coin in the series, George Washington. I’ve written this post about the program here. It’s one of the top posts for the entire blog.

I saw this article today on Yahoo News, and I thought it fit right in with the topic of this blog – namely how people can be predictably irrational.

Yahoo News/AP: No Plans to Replace Bill with Dollar Coin

The failure of previous iterations of the dollar coin are common knowledge. Every time it’s the same. Big fanfare, big launch, and then the US Mint produces a huge number of coins that sit in vaults forever because there is no demand for the coins.

An AP-Ipsos poll found that three-fourths of people surveyed oppose replacing the dollar bill, featuring George Washington, with a dollar coin. People are split evenly on the idea of having both a dollar bill and a dollar coin.

Fantastic. This would be a really interesting data point… if the costs of the dollar bill and the dollar coin were the same. It’s nice to know that if everything were equal, people prefer the bill to the coin. This isn’t surprising – I personally also prefer the bill to the coin, assuming both are freely accessible.

Here’s the problem, though.  Dollar bills wear out in 18 months.  Coins last approximately 30 years.  If you do the math on $1 units in circulation, you realize that we spend hundreds of millions of dollars, per year, extra, just to support the dollar bill.

Now granted, in a US budget of over $2 Trillion dollars, maybe the idea of worrying about a few hundred million is quaint.  But I guarantee you, the question would have come out differently if you had asked:

“Do you support a federal tax increase of several hundred million dollars to have a dollar bill instead of a dollar coin?”

Rephrase it how you’d like.  I know the “tax increase” word is dirty (it’s certainly a way to lose my vote).  Try, “how much would you pay extra to have a dollar bill instead of a dollar coin?”

That’s the real issue – we all know people prefer the bill.  That is obvious given the failures to launch a coin historically.  The question really is, how much is that preference worth?   In a world where both “cost the same” to the user, that preference will dominate.  But would people really pay extra for the convenience of the dollar, if that cost were visible?

I used to be a big dollar bill fan, but I’ve flipped around now that I’ve seen how successful the coin has been in Europe and Canada.  The path is easy:

  • Retire the $1 Bill
  • Create a $1 Coin
  • Create a $2 Coin

The third step is key, since it helps solve the issue of having too many coins as change for a $5 bill.

My only question now is whether or not we’ll ever really complete the conversion to a coin.  Right now, the race is between the coin and electronic payment.  At some point, cash just won’t matter enough to care.

Price Changes at the US Mint: Some Down, Most Up

It looks like the US Mint is adjusting prices significantly in 2007 to account for the inclusion of the new Presidential $1 Dollar Coins in the annual sets, and the increased cost of many of the base and precious metals.

Quoted from their new answers site:

You may notice price changes on some of our recurring products this year. These changes, both increases and decreases, can be attributed to several factors:

  • Many of our annual sets have grown to include Presidential $1 Coins.
  • The cost of the base metals that make up many of our coins has increased significantly over the past several years.

Opportunities have been identified to increase customer value by reducing product prices where possible.

Below is a list of current product prices, followed by the change from last year’s price.

  • United States Mint Proof Set – $26.95 (+$4.00)
  • United States Mint Silver Proof Set – $44.95 (+$7.00)
  • United States Mint 50 State Quarters Proof Set – $13.95 (-$2.00)
  • United States Mint 50 State Quarters Silver Proof Set – $25.95 (+$2.00)
  • United States Mint Uncirculated Set – $22.95 (+$6.00)
  • Golden Dollar 250-Coin Bag – $319.95 (-$27.05)
  • Golden Dollar 25-Coin Roll – $35.95 (+$0.45)
  • 50 State Quarters 1,000-Coin Bag – $309.95 (+$9.95)
  • 50 State Quarters 100-Coin Bag – $32.95 (-$2.55)
  • 50 State Quarters Two-Roll Set – $32.95 (+$0.95)
  • Kennedy Half-Dollar 200-Coin Bag – $130.95 (-$4.05)
  • Kennedy Half-Dollar Two-Roll Set – $32.95 (-$2.55)
  • 50 State Quarters First Day Coin Covers – $14.95 (-$5.00)
  • Collecting America’s Coins: Beginner Basics – $11.95 (-$2.55)

The price changes are most noticeable around the precious metal coins, particularly the silver proof sets.  It will be interesting to see how prices adjust on the open market.  I noticed last week that the price of silver proof sets on eBay hadn’t yet adjusted to these new prices.

More information can be found on the US Mint website.

2007 Presidential $1 Dollar Coins to Debut in Houston

It’s actually a lit bit embarrassing. It sounds like the new 2007 Presidential $1 Dollar Coins are going to debut in Houston … with a George Washington impersonator. Yes, you read that right.

They are really trying to play up the educational angle on these new coins, and the impersonator is part of that.

More coverage here in the Houston Chronicle.

Some quotes from the article:

Gloria Eskridge, the mint’s associate director for sales and marketing, said millions of the coins, which will be the same size and gold color of the Sacagawea dollars now in circulation, will be produced in mints in Philadelphia and Denver. Additional coins honoring presidents, in order of their incumbency, will be issued quarterly.

Added Eskridge, “This is about giving Americans a choice. There are times when a dollar coin is easier to use. Instead of carrying around a pocketful of quarters for public transportation, for instance, it’s more convenient to use the dollar coin.”

I wonder how you end up in an executive role at the US Mint… In any case, Eskridge is missing the point here. The dollar coin will not work in the United States until they get rid of the one dollar bill. Period. They did it in Canada when they replaced the $1 bill with $1 & $2 coins recently.

You need the two-dollar coin to minimize the number of coins you get paying for a cheap item (like a candy bar) with a larger bill.

The Washington dollar will be the first such coin introduced since the debut of the Sacagawea dollar in January 2000. That coin, honoring the Shoshone woman who served as guide to Lewis and Clark, featured a gold tint to help differentiate it from the similarly sized U.S. quarter. More than a billion of the coins have been issued, the mint reports.

They talk like having a new dollar coin program launch only seven years after the last one failed is a good thing. I think I am one of the extremely few people who likes the coins, although they tarnish way too easily. I still carry them in my car ashtray, for parking and tolls, on the rare occasions I need them.

Well, I hope the Presidential $1 Dollar Coin Program generates interest. They are cool coins, but I’m afraid if they don’t solve the basic problem of the one dollar bill, these are destined to be a trivia item in 10 years.

Maybe I’ll get lucky, and no one else will buy them. Then my sets will be that much more collectible.

Launch date is February 15th.

Previous articles on the program:

New eBay Guide: Collecting the New 24K Gold First Spouse Program Coins

Nothing here that you haven’t read already in my previous blog post, but I have completed my fourth eBay Guide.  Writing eBay guides has been surprisingly rewarding.  Far more page views that I would have expected (some guides are getting to nearly 500 page views), and I’ve now made it to the “Top 2000” of all writers.

Here is the new guide:

Collecting the New 24K Gold First Spouse Program Coins

As usual, if you are a registered eBay user, please review the guide and vote “yes” for its usefulness.  The more “yes” votes it receives, the more likely it is that another eBay user, searching on relevant terms, will see the guide.

Update: US Mint Schedule for Presidential $1 Dollar Coin Program

The US Mint has published the initial schedule for new products in 2007:

2007 Scheduled Products Listing
The following list displays the United States Mint’s 2007 products and their dates of availability. This list will be updated periodically as dates for products being released later in the year have yet to be set. All dates are subject to change by the United States Mint without prior notice.

Availability Date Product Description
January 10 Jamestown 400th Anniversary Commemorative Coin Program
January/February United States Mint 50 State Quarters Proof Set™
January/February United States Mint 50 State Quarters Silver Proof Set™
January 29 Montana Quarter Bags and Two-Roll Sets
February 5 American Eagle Gold Proof Coins
February 5 American Buffalo Gold Proof One Ounce Coin
February 15 United States Mint Presidential $1 Coin Proof Set
February 15 George Washington $1 Coin Bags and Rolls
February 20 Golden Dollar Bags and Rolls
February 20 Kennedy Half-Dollar Bag and Two-Roll Set
March American Eagle Silver Proof Coin
March/April American Eagle Uncirculated Coins
April Washington Quarter Bags and Two-Roll Sets
April United States Mint Proof Set(R)
May Presidential Spouse Gold Proof Coin
May
Presidential Spouse Bronze Medal 1 5/16″
May
John Adams $1 Coin Bags and Rolls
May Little Rock Central High School Desegregation Silver Dollar

I’ve highlighted the products related to the new Presidential $1 Dollar Coin Program. Note that there is a proof set for the Presidential Dollar coins, but not a silver proof set, at least, not as of May 2007.