Battlestar Galactica: Final Five Spoilers (Season 3 Finale)

Interest on my blog is off the charts for Battlestar Galactica lately, so I just had to put a post up as we count down the next five days until the season three finale.

First, if you are not caught up, a couple posts you should read:

  1. My post on the Death of Starbuck. (this is currently the most viewed post on my blog)
  2. This great summary of the Crossroads, Part 1 episode from this Sunday, March 17th.

Now, onto the spoilers. If you don’t want to know what’s going to happen, or more accurately, what I think is going to happen, then stop reading already. No one is forcing you.

Most of my good material is from BuddyTV, which has the best spoilers post on the season finale that I’ve been able to find.

First, Starbuck. She is not dead. Rumors abound that attempt to prove that she is not dead. Current spoiler sites are saying that she will be back in the season finale, claiming to have visited Earth, and ready to guide the fleet to the planet.

Second, who are the final five cylons? Here is a quick shout out to Elliot, who seems to have correctly commented that Anders, Tory, Tigh, and Tyrol are all Cylons… or are they? The spoiler just says that they are hearing the music, and they meet and decide that they think they are Cylons. But does that make sense?

To me, it would make more sense if they actually were not Cylons, but have been tampered with somehow to “hear the music”. Thus, like Baltar before them, they think they are Cylons, but actually aren’t.

It’s also possible that some are, and some aren’t. Tigh would be hard to explain, given his long history with Adama. After all, the war with the mechanical Cylons was only 40 years ago. They didn’t have humanoid models back then.

Anders, on the other hand, is easy to see as a Cylon. First, Starbuck just “found” him as a rebel on Caprica. Second, all of Starbuck’s hallucination about being married to a Cylon could reflect a subconscious realization that actually her husband was a Cylon. Tory is also easy to see.

Personally, I will be disappointed if the Final Five Cylons end up being just other individuals on the crew. I think the show has set up a very interesting question with the Final Five:

  • Why don’t the other Cylons want to speak about them? Did the Final Five leave because they disagreed with the path taken by the other Cylons? Did they do something unspeakable?
  • Are there many versions of the Final Five? Are they functionally like the other seven, or do they have special abilities? Are they more human? Do they resurrect?
  • Why did Number 3 react the Final Five the way she did? She clearly had see the one she apologized to before.

Lastly, what is up with the virtual Baltar in Caprica Six’s head, and the virtual Six in Baltar’s head?

Very excited for the season finale, but I hope they don’t short-change these issues with a “quick fix”.

Please comment below – let’s use the next few days to assemble as many guesses as possible about the finale and Season 4. We’ll then see who’s right after March 24th.

Update (3/26/2006): See my final post on the Season Finale and the Wait for 2008, now available.

Update (1/8/2007): Possible spoilers for the fifth & last cylon, as we approach Season 4.

Update (4/22/2008): New post on Episode 3 of the 4th Season: Ties That Bind.

Betting Odds on Winner of American Idol, Season 6

BuddyTV has a great article handicapping odds for the winner of American Idol, based on their betting community. Since I posted Jim’s prediction here previously, only fair to post this list as well.

  1. Melinda Doolittle. 1.24:1
  2. Lakisha Jones. 3.4:1
  3. Blake Lewis. 9:1
  4. Chris Sligh. 11:1
  5. Jordin Sparks. 14:1

More detail here. It seems like this would be a perfect place for a futures market – I wonder if someone has already set one up, like the markets set up for the 2008 presidential race, etc.

Now that I know about the whole “Vote for the Worst” campaign online, my big question is really how far can they take Sanjaya? How far will the American Idol team allow it to go? How can they fix it?

UpdateSimon says he’ll quit if Sanjaya wins American Idol…

Who Is Voting For Sanjaya? (American Idol, Season 6, Top Twelve)

Funniest thing about today. It was a record day for my blog, almost 2,000 page views. I’m going to write a separate post about the metrics because they were pretty interesting.

The funny part is when I checked the #1 search term from outside search engines to my blog before watching the Americal Idol, Season 6, Top 12 announcements today, I found this phrase:

“who is voting for sanjaya”

Number 1 search term! Hilarious. All the hits went to this post.

Well, I don’t know who is voting for Sanjaya, but he’s now in the top twelve. Wow.

Really, I don’t know what to say. Maybe someone has actually figured out how to “crack” American Idol, kind of like the Google bombing from a few years ago. I can see some clever hackers laughing about it:

“Hey, what if we bring American Idol down?”

“How can we do that?”

“We’ll rig it so that Sanjaya wins”

Well, whatever Sanjaya has, I’m going to have to watch him sing at least one more time. Ouch.

Update (3/9/2007): The answer was found on Blogging Stocks. Apparently, there is a growing movement (as I suspected) to damage these shows by voting for the worst contestant! There are actually sites that are encouraging people to “Vote for the Worst”. And I was just kidding when I wrote this post originally!

Update (4/7/2007): All of a sudden, this blog post is getting thousands of hits a day again. I guess it is because we still have Sanjaya to kick around! The comment trail has become hilarious, so I’m approving them as fast as I can. Just for the record, it’s now well known that Vote For the Worst isn’t the only contributor here. Howard Stern on Sirius Radio has been stumping for Sanjaya with his millions of fans. Also, there definitely does seem to be a very real Sanjaya fan base, as embarrassing as that might be for those people.

Update (4/11/2007):  Nice coverage of the Sanjaya phenomenon on Newsvine, including a link to this post as one of five primary points outlining the causes.  Special kudos in the post to the elaborate comments here on Psychohistory…

Battlestar Galactica: The Death of Starbuck & The Rest of Season 3 (Spoilers)

Yeah, I guess putting “spoilers” after that title doesn’t help much, does it?

I was moved to post on the topic based on Elliot’s comment on my original post on a possible end to the series. After all, if Elliot cares, then maybe other people do too?

So the quick recap:

On March 5th (yesterday), the Battlestar Galactica episode “Maelstrom” aired. At the very end, Starbuck dies.

There is a nice interview with Katee Sackhoff, the actress who plays (played?) Starbuck on TheSciFiWorld. Katee has been pretty pissy about Battlestar Galactica all season, and she has frequently commented about how she didn’t like the love triangle set up around her character this season.

Personally, I found the episode tiring. So many predictions and allusions to Starbuck’s life having meaning & purpose. The vague references to finding out what lies between life & death.

Right now, the only options are:

  1. Starbuck is dead. Finito. No mystery, just a girl in Viper who went suicidal.
  2. Starbuck escaped. Some lame last-minute rescue or eject, picked up by a Cylon before dying.
  3. Starbuck is a Cylon. She wakes up in Season 4, resurrected, as one of the final Five, and becomes the fleet’s worst enemy because she knows them inside and out.

#3 is not the worst twist in the world. That would be my guess, assuming the writers don’t have the guts to just have her be dead.

There are only three more episodes in the season. BuddyTV has some additional spoilers here. It sounds like the last two episodes focus on the trial of Baltar, where we will learn the identity of one of the last five Cylons, and where Baltar will eventually go free.

Do you have a guess as to the Cylon? Based on the penchant for this writing team to go after the unexpected, my prediction would be for President Roslyn to actually turn out to be a Cylon. True, she went through that bout of cancer. But, Adama can’t be a Cylon, since his history is public and pre-dates the humanoid Cylons. I also like feeding on the suspicion that Roslyn somehow escaped the destruction of New Caprica on purpose, rather than on accident.

Unlikely, maybe. But if it’s some other character, will we really care?

We’ll find out soon enough.

Update (3/20/2007):  Check out my new post on the Final Five Spoilers for the Season 3 Finale.

The Winner of American Idol, Season 6, is Announced Early

OK, major spoiler alert.

Watching the American Idol announcement tonight about the next four voted off, I could help but feel somehow detached from each exit. Why? Because the winner of Season 6 has already been announced… by Jim Ambach.

Yes, Jim has a blog on eBay, and he posted yesterday his grand prediction: Melinda (not Melissa) Doolittle.

Well, we’ll see. Jim’s American Idol skills may be a bit rusty from the 2.5 years he recently spent living in Switzerland. I haven’t placed my bets for this season, yet, but I will tell you that the size of Melissa’s head does freak me out a little.

Since we’re on the topic of American Idol tonight, can someone please explain to me who is voting for Sanjaya, and why? Please comment.

Jim, if you are out there, please explain.

Update (5/21/2007):  Well, it’s obvious now that Jim was wrong in 2007.  Clearly all that time in Switzerland has affected his read of the American voter.  The final episode is tonight, and it’s hard to believe that Jordin won’t be crowned the winner for Season 6… that is, unless Melissa’s votes somehow make their way to Blake (unlikely).

The Product Wars: Video Games & High Definition DVDs

Fun website I found today, as I was reading about the ongoing battles between HD-DVD and Blu-Ray DVD, the two competing high definition DVD formats on the market currently.

The website is called “The Product Wars”, and it basically just scrapes Amazon.com for data (not sure this is the best indicator vs. scraping eBay, but I digress…)

In any case, they have pages that show a lot of statistics about how well the competing systems are doing.  Here is the page for the DVD Wars.

Takeaway?  Blu-Ray is doing much better than expected, given the PS3 shortages and the cost advantage of HD-DVD players.  In fact, right now, it looks like Blu-Ray has the edge.

The website also has a page dedicated to the next-generation video consoles: Nintendo Wii, Playstation 3, and Xbox 360.

Takeaway?  The Xbox 360 is still outselling everything, although the Wii seems to have eclipsed the Xbox 360 in terms of popularity on a few key measures.

Fun data, if you are into those two markets.

Enjoy.

Goodbye, Studio 60 On the Sunset Strip. We Hardly Knew You.

Super quick post, but since I made a big deal last week about listing the shows I’m watching, well, it seemed topical.

One of them has bit the dust…

Sorkin’s ‘Studio 60′ yanked early; wealthy, TiVo-happy Scarsdale residents outraged

Can’t say I’m surprised, but I actually thought the show was OK. Technically, the show isn’t cancelled, but it’s a really bad sign when you get bumped early in the middle of your first season.

Still, this will save me an hour per week, so I’m going to file this one under potentially a good thing.

Now, how to deal with the Tivo Triple Conflict of SmallVille vs. My Name is Earl vs. American Idol on Thursdays for the next 3 weeks…

American Idol, Season 6, Top 24 Spoilers

Don’t read if you don’t want to know…

Wakkaballs has it all on his blog, in this post.

In plain text:

TOP 24
1. Alaina Alexander
2. Antonella Barba
3. Antonio Javier “A.J.” Tabaldo
4. Blake Lewis
5. Brandon Rogers
6. Christopher “Chris” Richardson
7. Chris Sligh
8. Gina “Gigi” Glocksen
9. Haley Scarnato
10. Jared “J.L.” Cotter
11. Jason “Sundance” Head
12. Jordin Sparks
13. Lakeesha Jones
14. Leslie Hunt
15. Melinda Doolittle
16. Nicholas “Nick” Pedro
17. Paul “P.K.” Kim
18. Philip Joel “Phil” Stacey
19. Rudolpho “Rudy” Cardenas
20. Sabrina Sloan
21. Sanjaya Malakar
22. Stephanie Edwards
23. Amy (female)
24. Nicole (female)

Enjoy. 

HD DVD & Blu-Ray Appear to Have Been Completely Cracked. So Much for DRM.

Wow. That is some sort of world-record for turning an entire new generation of DRM worthless.

Engadget: Hackers Discover Blu-Ray and HD-DVD Processing Key

Engadget is reporting that the “processing key” for HD-DVD and Blu-Ray have now been cracked. This is a big deal, because unlike previous exploits that were able to copy individual movies, this crack, if true, means that every HD-DVD and Blu-Ray DVD will be able to be ripped.

I have to say, I’m not surprised. The industry has basically an impossible problem when it comes to DRM:

  1. I want to ensure that no one can copy the digital content off my discs.
  2. I want to ensure that my discs can play in any one of millions of players made by hundred of different manufacturers by anyone in any location.
  3. I want to be able to mass produce identical discs
  4. I want to be able to mass product identical players
  5. I want to ensure that my discs can play on PCs, in order to take advantage of scale economics for PCs.

All of the above produce too many openings for hackers to figure out how to “pretend” to be just another player, and thus get the decrypted content.  The economic incentive for hackers is just too high, and that combined with a good dose of anger towards the “greedy studios”, and you have a guarantee that eventually, these new standards will be cracked.

I wonder if the movie studios will take Steve Jobs’ & Bill Gates‘ advice and give up on DRM? Unlikely to be sure.

Instead, they will focus their efforts on limiting the rights of legitimate, paying customers while crackers will get access to all of their content for free. Of course, I’m sure there will be the requisite push on law enforcement for “trophy arrests” of some 15-year old somewhere with an archive of 300 Blu-Ray movies (20GB each!) on a server.

Unfortunately, this ruins my theory of who would win the format wars – I thought that the first format to be cracked would win the market, since the increased options for buyers of a cracked format are so much higher than a secure one.

Alas, they seem to both be cracked at the same time, so it’s a dead heat again.

What TV Are You Watching? My Top Shows for Winter 2007

Every Sunday when I check my Tivo lately, I’m reminded that I’ve been watching a lot of television.

It’s not a bad thing, per se.  It feels like just about a year or two ago I was lamenting the cancellation of several of my favorites, and feeling like I was doomed to watch random reality shows and American Idol wannabe shows.

But suddenly, in January 2007, I had more shows to watch than time to watch them.

Here’s what I’ve been watching lately (at least, according to my Tivo):

Sunday

  • Battlestar Galactica (SCIFI)
  • Rome (HBO)
  • Desperate Housewives (ABC)

Monday

  • 24 (FOX)
  • Heroes (NBC)
  • Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip (NBC)

Tuesday

  • American Idol (FOX)
  • Dirt (FX)

Wednesday

  • American Idol (FOX)

Thursday

  • Smallville (CW)
  • My Name is Earl (NBC)
  • The Office (NBC)
  • Scrubs (NBC)
  • 30 Rock (NBC)
  • ER (NBC)

Of course, I can’t possibly watch all that during the week, so I catch up on the weekends.  Some of the shows are really getting tired, so they are the last to get watched (ER).  Some are embarrassing enough that I’m susprised I put them down online for all to see (Desperate Housewives, Smallville).   Some are new shows that, if they failed, I wouldn’t shed any tears (30 Rock, Studio 60).

I’d gladly swap some of the above for more HBO shows – they are always my favorite (except for BSG).  The Wire, Entourage, Deadwood, and even the aging Sopranos would be welcome.

Rome is probably my biggest suprise of the season – I was lukewarm on season one, and was not sure I’d keep up with season 2, but so far, it has been much faster paced this year.

Feel free to comment here about any of the above shows, or any of the shows you’ve been watching… please, though, don’t tell me I should be watching Lost or Grey’s Anatomy.  Sorry.  I got tired of Lost in Season 2, and I’ve never had the time to pick up Grey’s.  Maybe someday, on iTunes, when there is a dry spell again.

Steve Jobs Drops a DRM Bomb on the Music Industry: Thoughts on Music

Who would have guessed that on a random Tuesday in February, Steve Jobs would decide to drop a bomb on the music industry. But that’s what he did today, on the Apple.com website:

Thoughts on Music: Apple.com

There are a lot of good summaries on the web already. Here is the one from Don Dodge, for example. If you are not into reading long missives, I can summarize the article, Powerpoint-style:

  • Digital Rights Management (DRM) for music doesn’t work. 97% of all music on iPods is ripped from DRM-free CDs sold every year.
  • Critics who want Apple to open up FairPlay don’t understand that if they license it, it’s likely to be cracked constantly. The only thing holding it together is that Apple controls the hardware, the software, and the music protection.
  • The only rational solution is for the music industry to stop requiring DRM on their music, and go with an open format like MP3 or AAC. Every iPod ever made supports it.

For those of you not familiar with Digital Rights Management, DRM is the software that is built to prevent people from illegally copying files, like Music. For the iTunes Store, Apple uses a DRM called FairPlay which limits the number of machines you can play the music on. Right now, there is a lot of legal controversy in Europe over the fact that this DRM also “locks” people into the Apple iPod, because once they buy music on iTunes, they can’t play it on other devices.

This missive from Steve Jobs was unexpected, largely for some pretty significant reasons:

  • Everyone expects Apple to support “closed-systems”. It’s part of the baggage from the whole Windows vs. Mac debate from the 1980s.
  • Apple has sold over 2 Billion songs on iTunes. Apple doesn’t seem to need a DRM-free world.
  • The lock-in from iTunes & the iPod seems like strategic genius, and the basis of a new monopoly. On the surface, this feels like a magnanimous gift. Selfless, even.

There have been a lot of calls in the industry to give up DRM lately, but a lot of them have to do with the fact that people don’t want to accept a world where Apple controls the entire music industry (which is where it is heading right now). Bill Gates, for example, proclaimed a while ago that he supports a DRM-free approach to music.

Personally, I thought the DRM-free approach was the only way the rest of the industry would be able to crack Apple’s stranglehold on digital music. I see DRM-free music as the natural response to a monopoly, similar to the response of Linux to Windows.

However, now that I read Steve Jobs’ note, it make sense on so many levels for Apple to issue this statement now. In fact, I don’t know why I didn’t see it sooner. By issuing this statement, either:

  • Steve knows the Music industry will not go DRM-free, so his lock-in is secure. However, by going on the record this way, he lines up a plausible defense to the legal challenges in Europe, and avoids the perception of Apple as the gluttonous monopolist. More importantly, he paints a bullseye on the real monopolists – the four big music publishing houses.
  • Steve believes that the iPod brand and product are so dominant now, that even without lock-in, they win majority marketshare in the music player market, like the Walkman before it. In fact, the lock-in is likely over-rated, since such a small percentage of music is actually locked anyway, and the margins in the music are terrible.
  • Steve is not liking the tone and progress of licensing discussions with the TV and Movie industry, and he thinks that if a precedent can be set with Music that DRM is bad, then that will open up a world of video content to Apple & iTunes.

It’s hard to imagine the music industry embracing a DRM-free world. Fundamentally, they still believe that as copyright-holders, they have the right to control distribution at a fine-grained level to maximize profits. And of course, they are correct, they do have that right.

What they didn’t predict, however, was that attempts to enforce that right would lead to a consolidation of their distribution channels, which would shift market power from them to Apple. And now, they have too choose between a rock (Apple market power) and a hard place (DRM-free music).

I’ll end here with my favorite passage from Steve Jobs’ letter:

The third alternative is to abolish DRMs entirely. Imagine a world where every online store sells DRM-free music encoded in open licensable formats. In such a world, any player can play music purchased from any store, and any store can sell music which is playable on all players. This is clearly the best alternative for consumers, and Apple would embrace it in a heartbeat. If the big four music companies would license Apple their music without the requirement that it be protected with a DRM, we would switch to selling only DRM-free music on our iTunes store. Every iPod ever made will play this DRM-free music.

Why would the big four music companies agree to let Apple and others distribute their music without using DRM systems to protect it? The simplest answer is because DRMs haven’t worked, and may never work, to halt music piracy. Though the big four music companies require that all their music sold online be protected with DRMs, these same music companies continue to sell billions of CDs a year which contain completely unprotected music. That’s right! No DRM system was ever developed for the CD, so all the music distributed on CDs can be easily uploaded to the Internet, then (illegally) downloaded and played on any computer or player.

I couldn’t have said it better myself.

Satin Tights No Longer: Joss Whedon is Not Working on Wonder Woman Anymore

Just caught this news tidbit tonight, and had to post.

One of the most anticipated upcoming comic book movies was the new adaptation of Wonder Woman, which was being written by Joss Whedon. Whedon is a cult favorite for shows like “Buffy the Vampire Slayer” and the more recent western/sci-fi series “Firefly” and the following movie “Serenity“.

As Joss Whedon reported on his own blog, Whedonesque:

“You (hopefully) heard it here first: I’m no longer slated to make Wonder Woman,” Whedon wrote. “What? But how? It’s pretty complicated, so bear with me. I had a take on the film that, well, nobody liked. Hey, not that complicated.”

It’s surprising news, especially given the initial optimism that Whedon would be able to take Wonder Woman to production, after a number of failed attempts.  He also made comments to the effect that he had never established an idea for a lead actress, likely the number one challenge with a character like Wonder Woman.

You can read more on the SyFy Portal.

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows (Book 7) Release Date: July 21, 2007

Right now, my original post on Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows (yes, mis-spelled) is driving about one half of all traffic to my blog. Amazing.

Well, more Harry Potter news today.

Two versions.  Standard & Deluxe.

They have announced the ship date: July 21st, 2007.

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows by J.K. Rowling, the seventh and final book in the best-selling series, has been scheduled for release at 12:01 a.m. on July 21, 2007, it was announced today by Scholastic, the global children’s publishing, education and media company.

I can’t even really imagine how incredibly large the hoopla will be around the event. In fact, hoopla is not the right word. (Is it even really a word?) Celebration. Chaos. Pandemonium.

This is bigger news than the announcement that the actor who plays Harry Potter in the movies, Daniel Radcliffe, is going to be appearing naked in the revival of the play Equus in London starting February 27th. Yes, you read that right.

You can already pre-order the book. Borders is actually running a “Severus Snape: Friend or Foe” campaign to drum up excitement (like they need to).

The movie for Harry Potter 5, The Order of the Phoenix, opens the week before, on July 13th.

Pandemonium.

My Tivo Ate My 24 Series Premiere

I hate to post anything that even resembles something bad about Tivo, but…

My DirecTivo ate my 24 series premiere.  Or more accurately, it failed to record the second 2-hour block last night.

I caught it part way through.  At 8:45pm, nothing was recording.  When I checked, I saw that for some reason, while my Season Pass was there for 24, the guide showed “no upcoming episodes”.  That was strange, since obviously one was playing on the screen.

I hit record, and ran to the bedroom to discover, thankfully, that my 2nd DirecTivo was recording the show correctly.

Phew.

But how bad was this problem?  I had a problem like this 2 weeks ago, when the Scrubs premiere failed to record.  All the other shows recorded fine, but Scrubs was showing “no upcoming episodes” even though there clearly were shows in the guide.

I found this post on PVRWire which went into some detail about problems people were having.   I don’t buy the conspiracy theories about DirecTV trying to ruin people’s Tivo experience to get them to “upgrade” to the craptastic box that is the DirecTV-branded DVR.  But bugs and issues can and do happen, and it made me realize how much I depend on my Tivo “just working”.

I double-checked my To Do list for the week, and I discovered no less than four other shows that had the same problem.  I manually added them to the To Do list, but I’m worried.  I hope they fix this problem soon.

A spokesperson on CNET has saidit is aware of the problem and should have it fixed by this evening (last Friday).” However, at this point in time DirecTiVo users are continuing to report problems.